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US Oil Days of Cover

A closed strait does not move the price on the day it closes — it moves the price when the barrels already in storage run out. This is the count of those barrels: every barrel the US holds, commercial and Strategic Petroleum Reserve, over one day of refinery runs.

How Long the US Can Absorb It

The stock, the burn rate, and the ratio between them — weekly, from the EIA's petroleum status reports.

US Days of Cover

Latest week: Jul 31, 2026 • Peak in this window: 55.0 days on Oct 10, 2025 • Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — WCESTUS1, WCSSTUS1 and WCRRIUS2, weekly

DRAWING DOWN
Days of cover left
41.5 days
Every barrel held — commercial and SPR — over one day of refinery runs. Commercial alone: 23.7 days
Draining each week by
-0.5 days
Days of cover gained or lost per week, measured over the last 8 weeks
At that rate, cover lasts
78 weeks
Cover divided by the current rate. Arithmetic on today’s numbers, not a forecast — the rate changes every week
Commercial crude stocks
407.0m bbl
Held by refiners and traders — the barrels the market can actually buy
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
304.8m bbl
Government-held. Releasing it buys weeks, and refilling it later becomes new demand
Refinery runs
17.2m bbl/day
Crude put through US refineries — the denominator of every number above

Days of cover, weekly

The last two years • Commercial plus SPR over one day of refinery runs

US days of cover
41.50 0.42 (1.02%) vs prevJul 31, 2026

This is the number that decides when a closed strait reaches the pump. Crude that never left the Gulf does not raise the price while refineries are still running on barrels bought months ago — it raises the price when those barrels are gone. Two of the three figures above are a choice rather than a fact: a government can release the SPR to buy weeks, and refiners can cut runs to stretch what is left, which lowers the denominator and flatters this ratio while producing less fuel. Watch the direction and the rate, not the level alone.

How to Read This Chart

Days of cover divides every barrel the US holds — commercial crude stocks plus the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — by one day of refinery runs. It answers the question a closed strait raises: how long can refineries keep running on barrels already bought, before the missing supply reaches the pump.

All three inputs come from the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, so the series updates weekly: commercial crude stocks held by refiners and traders — the barrels the market can actually buy — the government-held Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and the crude US refineries actually put through per day. The page recalculates the ratio from the live data and shows nothing cached, estimated or substituted.

Two of the inputs are choices rather than facts. A government can release the SPR to buy weeks — and refilling it later becomes new demand — while refiners can cut runs to stretch what is left, which lowers the denominator and flatters the ratio while producing less fuel.

The two directions mean opposite things for US equities. A falling cover figure is the buffer draining — the day the missing barrels reach the pump getting closer, and with it the move in the oil price, the inflation print and the rate path that stock valuations are priced off. A rising figure is the cushion rebuilding — but read why before reading relief into it: cover lifted by an SPR release is borrowed time, and cover lifted by refinery run cuts is less fuel being made.

Watch the direction and the rate, not the level alone. A falling cover figure with a steady weekly drain is arithmetic on today's numbers, not a forecast — the rate changes every week. When the cover runs out, the shortfall shows up in the Brent price, and from there in inflation, rates and US equity valuations.

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Reserves data sourced as noted above. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.