US Oil Days of Cover

Days of cover divides every barrel the US holds, commercial crude stocks plus the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, by one day of refinery runs. It answers the question a closed strait raises: how long refineries can keep running on barrels already bought. All three inputs come from the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, so the series updates weekly.

Two of the inputs are decisions, not facts. A government can release the SPR to buy weeks, and refilling it later becomes new demand. Refiners can cut runs to stretch what is left, which lowers the divisor and lifts the ratio while producing less fuel.

A falling cover figure means the buffer is draining and the missing barrels are closer to reaching the pump. A rising figure means the cushion is rebuilding, but read the reason first. Watch the direction and the weekly rate, not the level alone. The rate changes with every report. When the cover runs out, the shortfall shows up in the Brent price, and from there in inflation, interest rates and stock valuations.