Advanced market crash prediction models and recession forecasting techniques
Our proprietary market assessment combines quantitative indicators with proven recession prediction models to provide comprehensive risk analysis.
Crash Risk Analysis
Combines Buffett Indicator, Shiller PE, and yield curve data to calculate probability of market decline > 20%
Based on 6 key indicators
Growth Probability
Evaluates economic momentum using real interest rates, dollar strength, and money supply growth
Based on 4 growth indicators
Overall Risk Score
Weighted combination of crash risk and growth probability with market sentiment analysis
Risk-adjusted assessment
We employ multiple proven recession prediction methodologies used by central banks and institutional investors:
Yield Curve Model
The inverted yield curve (10Y-2Y spread) has predicted every US recession since 1950 with only two false positives. Our model tracks the depth and duration of inversions for timing predictions.
Sahm Rule Indicator
Developed by economist Claudia Sahm, this rule triggers when the 3-month moving average of unemployment rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low.
Leading Economic Index (LEI)
Composite of 10 leading indicators including stock prices, money supply, yield spreads, and consumer expectations. Three consecutive monthly declines often signal recession.
Credit Spread Analysis
Monitors corporate bond spreads and credit conditions. Widening spreads indicate increasing default risk and tightening credit conditions.
Analysis of major market crashes and their warning signals helps validate our prediction models:
2008 Financial Crisis
The yield curve inverted in 2006, housing bubble indicators peaked in 2005-2006, and credit spreads began widening 18 months before the crash.
2000 Dot-Com Crash
Extreme valuation metrics with Shiller PE reaching 44.2 and Buffett Indicator above 140% signaled massive overvaluation before the crash.
1987 Black Monday
Rising interest rates, high valuations, and program trading contributed to the largest single-day decline in stock market history.
2020 COVID-19 Crash
Unique exogenous shock that caused rapid market decline but also unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy response.
Fear & Greed Indicators
VIX Volatility Index
Market fear gauge - values above 30 indicate high stress
Put/Call Ratio
Options sentiment - high ratios suggest bearish sentiment
AAII Sentiment Survey
Individual investor sentiment - extreme readings are contrarian signals
Technical Market Structure
Market Breadth
Advance/decline ratios and new high/low analysis
Sector Rotation
Leadership changes between growth/value and defensive sectors
Credit Market Signals
Corporate bond spreads and credit default swap levels
Our market analysis provides framework for strategic asset allocation and risk management decisions:
Growth Positive Environment
Neutral Market Conditions
Crash Risk Environment
Important Notice: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
Recession Probability
Live recession risk assessment for 2026
Buffett Indicator
Market cap to GDP ratio live chart
Yield Curve
10Y-2Y Treasury spread — 98% recession accuracy
Shiller PE Ratio
Cyclically adjusted PE live chart
US Dollar Index
DXY dollar strength tracker
Money Supply (M2)
M2 money supply growth chart
Real Interest Rates
Inflation-adjusted rates chart