The most reliable recession predictor in financial history. Every US recession since 1950 was preceded by a yield curve inversion. When this chart goes negative, the countdown begins.
US Treasury yield curve spread (10Y-2Y). Negative values indicate inversion, often predicting recession.
Thresholds: Negative ≤-0.3 • Warning ≤0.2 • Positive >0.2
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The yield curve plots interest rates of US Treasury bonds across different maturities. Normally, longer-term bonds pay higher yields. When this relationship flips — short-term rates exceed long-term rates — it signals deep trouble ahead.
The 10Y-2Y Spread:
Why Inversion Matters:
The yield curve inverted before the 2001 recession, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 downturn. The average lead time is 12-18 months, giving prepared investors a window to adjust their portfolios.
2006 Inversion → 2008 Crisis
Yield curve inverted in August 2006. The Great Recession officially began in December 2007 — 16 months later. S&P 500 fell 57%.
2019 Inversion → 2020 Recession
Brief inversion in August 2019 preceded the COVID-driven recession by 7 months. While COVID was the catalyst, economic weakness was already building.
The red dashed zero line is the critical threshold. When the blue line drops below zero, the yield curve is inverted. The deeper and longer the inversion, the stronger the recession signal. After un-inverting, the recession typically arrives within months.
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Yield curve data sourced from the Federal Reserve. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.