Real Interest Rates
10-Year Treasury yield minus inflation rate. Negative values indicate favorable conditions for market growth.
Thresholds: Negative ≤-1 • Warning ≤1 • Positive >1
Today's reading sits at the 95.6th percentile of 284 months since 2003.
Current Value
2.46%
3-month Change
+0.3
3-month % Change
+0.3%
Why this can crash the market
The real rate is the true price of money, and it sets what every other asset is worth. When real rates are deeply negative, cash loses value, so money moves into stocks and property. When real rates turn high and positive, the process reverses: safe bonds pay a real return, capital leaves stocks, and companies that survived on cheap borrowing break first.
Historical Data
The last three years • Source: FRED DFII10 (10-Year TIPS constant maturity), daily
Real Interest Rates
2.46▲ 0.03 (1.23%) vs prevSep 9, 2026