Brent prices the two-thirds of world oil that moves by sea. When the straits close, the shock shows up here first. The chart shows the live price against its own trailing three months.
The spot price with its trailing three-month change. A rising price is the warning.
Source: FRED DCOILBRENTEU (Brent, Europe), daily
The last twelve months • Current: $114.89 • 3-month change: +$42.80 (+59.4%) • Source: FRED DCOILBRENTEU (Brent, Europe), daily
Brent prices the two-thirds of world oil that moves by sea, so a chokepoint shock reaches it first. The chart plots the spot price over the last twelve months, with the trailing three-month change, from the source named under the chart. The page reads the live source every hour.
Read the direction, not the level. A rising Brent price means the disruption in the straits has reached the market. It raises fuel and freight costs, which feed inflation within weeks, then interest rates, then stock prices. A falling Brent does not mean the risk is gone. While transit counts stay below baseline and days of cover keep draining, a calm price means the buffer is still working.
The history is consistent. In 1973 the embargo quadrupled oil, the S&P 500 lost 48% and inflation ran above 12%. In 1979 a supply cut of about 5% doubled crude and forced the Fed above 19%. In 2022 Brent touched $139, CPI hit 9.1% and stocks fell 25%.
The cause of the current move is counted tanker by tanker on the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb transit pages. The buffer absorbing it is measured on the days-of-cover page.
The parent risk page — both straits, the Brent price and US cover together
The transit collapse this price is reacting to
The second closed strait — the gate to the Suez Canal
How long US stocks can absorb the shortfall before it reaches this price
The section hub — external shocks that reprice US equities, tracked with live data
Price data sourced as noted above. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.