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Geopolitical risk · maritime chokepoints · Brent crude

Oil Shock — The Straits That Gate the World's Crude

A fifth of the world's oil passes through two narrow waterways. When tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait stops, the supply does not reroute. This is the live count of what still gets through.

CRITICAL-97.2%SEVERE DISRUPTION

Strait of Hormuz tanker transits vs baseline — the sharpest of 3 readings behind this level — the reading this page is scored on, and the one shown on the dashboard.

Every reading behind this level — the worst of them sets it
  • -59.6%SEVERE DISRUPTION
    Bab el-Mandeb Strait tanker transits vs baseline
  • -97.2%SEVERE DISRUPTION
    Strait of Hormuz tanker transits vs baseline
  • 40.9 daysDRAWING DOWN
    US days of cover, -0.2 days a week

Chokepoint Transit Collapse

Tanker transits counted daily from satellite AIS positions, against each strait's pre-disruption baseline. Tankers only: total vessel traffic recovers when container lines return, while crude is still stuck. Readings as of Sep 17, 2026.

Why this can crash the market

About a fifth of the world's oil passes through two waterways a few miles wide, and no pipeline can replace them. If the transit counts on this page collapse, the oil does not reroute. The Brent price resets within days, fuel and freight costs feed inflation within weeks, and the rate path reprices every stock. It happened this way in 1973, 1979 and 2022.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait

Baseline: Jan 1, 2019 – Nov 1, 2023 • Latest: Sep 13, 2026 • Source: IMF PortWatch, daily AIS tanker transit counts

SEVERE DISRUPTION
Current week, per day
8.1
Tanker transits, trailing 7-day mean
Pre-disruption baseline, per day
20.1
Daily tanker transits before the disruption
Change vs baseline
-59.6%
Against the baseline — traffic no longer passing through

Daily tanker transits — smoothed

The last twelve months — a window about current traffic, not history • 7-day trailing mean, tankers per day

Bab el-Mandeb Strait tanker transits per day
8.14▲ 0.43 (5.58%) vs prevSep 13, 2026

Full explanation of the Bab el-Mandeb Oil Transits chart →

Strait of Hormuz

Baseline: Jan 1, 2019 – Nov 1, 2023 • Latest: Sep 13, 2026 • Source: IMF PortWatch, daily AIS tanker transit counts

SEVERE DISRUPTION
Current week, per day
1.4
Tanker transits, trailing 7-day mean
Pre-disruption baseline, per day
50.2
Daily tanker transits before the disruption
Change vs baseline
-97.2%
Against the baseline — traffic no longer passing through

Daily tanker transits — smoothed

The last twelve months — a window about current traffic, not history • 7-day trailing mean, tankers per day

Strait of Hormuz tanker transits per day
1.43▼ 0.14 (8.92%) vs prevSep 13, 2026

Full explanation of the Strait of Hormuz Oil Transits chart →

Brent Crude — The Price of the Fear

Brent prices the two-thirds of world oil that moves by sea. When the straits close, the shock shows up here first.

Brent Crude

Source: FRED DCOILBRENTEU (Brent, Europe), daily

Current price
$130.80
Per barrel
3-month change
+$50.47
Dollars per barrel — rising is the alarm, falling is calm
3-month % change
+62.8%
Trailing three months. Rising is the warning.

Read the direction, not the level. A rising Brent price means the disruption in the straits has reached the market. A falling Brent does not mean the risk is gone. It means the shock has not reached the market yet.

Historical Data

The last twelve months • Current: $130.80 • 3-month change: +$50.47 (+62.8%) • Source: FRED DCOILBRENTEU (Brent, Europe), daily

Brent crude, USD per barrel
130.80▲ 9.55 (7.88%) vs prevSep 15, 2026

Full explanation of the Brent Crude Oil Price chart →

How Long the US Can Absorb It

A closed strait moves the price when the barrels already in storage run out. This is the count of those barrels and the rate they are leaving.

US Days of Cover

Latest week: Sep 11, 2026 • Peak in this window: 55.0 days on Oct 10, 2025 • Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — WCESTUS1, WCSSTUS1 and WCRRIUS2, weekly

DRAWING DOWN
Days of cover left
40.9 days
Every barrel held — commercial and SPR — over one day of refinery runs. Commercial alone: 24.4 days
Draining each week by
-0.2 days
Days of cover gained or lost per week, measured over the last 8 weeks
At that rate, cover lasts
215 weeks
Cover divided by the current rate. Arithmetic on today’s numbers, not a forecast — the rate changes every week
Commercial crude stocks
423.4m bbl
Held by refiners and traders — the barrels the market can actually buy
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
285.0m bbl
Government-held. Releasing it buys weeks, and refilling it later becomes new demand
Refinery runs
17.3m bbl/day
Crude put through US refineries — the denominator of every number above

Days of cover, weekly

The last two years • Commercial plus SPR over one day of refinery runs

US days of cover
40.88▲ 0.54 (1.34%) vs prevSep 11, 2026

This is the number that decides when a closed strait reaches the pump. Crude that never left the Gulf does not raise the price while refineries are still running on barrels bought months ago — it raises the price when those barrels are gone. Two of the three figures above are a choice rather than a fact: a government can release the SPR to buy weeks, and refiners can cut runs to stretch what is left, which lowers the denominator and flatters this ratio while producing less fuel. Watch the direction and the rate, not the level alone.

Full explanation of the US Oil Days of Cover chart →

Why Two Straits Decide the Price of Everything

No pipeline is big enough to replace them, and no insurer will cover a war zone. When these waterways close, the oil does not move.

Strait of Hormuz

  • Carried roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption — about 21 million barrels a day — until March 2026
  • At its narrowest it is 21 miles wide, with shipping lanes two miles across
  • Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar have no other sea route out of the Gulf
  • Closed for the first time in its history in March 2026

Bab el-Mandeb Strait

  • The gate to the Suez Canal — the shortest sea route from the Gulf to Europe
  • Carried around 12% of global seaborne oil trade before attacks began
  • Diversions around Africa add 10-14 days and burn extra fuel per voyage
  • War-risk premiums and freight rates reprice within days of each attack

What a Transit Collapse Means for US Markets

The US economy cannot replace oil at short notice. Every post-war oil shock reached inflation, interest rates and stock prices within months. The first three below are history. The fourth is live.

1973 — The Embargo

Oil quadrupled in months. The S&P 500 lost 48% and inflation ran above 12%. The recession that followed was the worst since the Great Depression.

1979 — Iran

A supply cut of barely 5% doubled the price of crude. The Fed was forced to hike rates above 19% to break the inflation it unleashed.

2022 — The Warning Shot

Brent briefly touched $139 after Russia invaded Ukraine. CPI hit 9.1%, the Fed hiked at the fastest pace in four decades, and stocks fell 25%.

2026 — Both Straits, Live

Hormuz has been closed since March and the Bab el-Mandeb since July. No earlier shock closed both at once. The counts above show what still moves. The cover figure shows how long that can last before it reaches the price.

How to Read This Page

The charts show the 7-day average of daily tanker transits, because raw daily counts swing too much to read. What matters is the level against the pre-disruption baseline. A strait running at half its baseline is a supply shock already in progress. Every barrel that stops moving through Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb shows up in the Brent price, then in the CPI, then in interest rates.

Frequently Asked Questions About Oil Shocks

Why do the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb matter so much for oil?

About 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly 21 million barrels a day. The Bab el-Mandeb is the gate to the Suez Canal route from the Gulf to Europe. No pipeline is large enough to replace either waterway, so a closure removes supply instead of rerouting it.

What does a collapse in chokepoint transits mean for US markets?

A sustained drop in transits is a supply shock in progress. Fewer tankers means less oil delivered. That lifts the Brent price, feeds inflation, pushes interest rates up, and has reached stocks within months. The 1973, 1979 and 2022 episodes all followed this chain. The 2026 closure of both straits is the live case.

If the straits are closed, why has the oil price not already spiked?

Refineries do not run on the crude that shipped this week. They run on barrels already in storage, so a closure reaches the price only when those barrels are gone. This is why the page also tracks US days of cover: commercial stocks plus the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, divided by one day of refinery runs. The transit count shows that supply has stopped. The cover figure shows how long that can last.

How many days of oil does the US have in storage?

The live figure is on this page, from the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: commercial crude stocks plus the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, divided by the crude US refineries run per day. The page also shows how many days of cover are lost each week. That division uses the current rate. It is not a forecast: the rate changes with every weekly report, and a release from the SPR can slow it.

Why does the chart show a smoothed transit series?

Raw daily transit counts swing several-fold from one day to the next, which makes the raw series unreadable. The charts plot the trailing 7-day mean so the underlying disruption level is visible against the pre-disruption baseline.

Where does the data on this page come from?

Chokepoint transits come from IMF PortWatch, which counts vessel calls daily from satellite AIS positions. This page reads the tanker count, not the all-vessel total, because container traffic returning to a strait says nothing about crude. The Brent series comes from the source named under its chart. Each block prints its own source.

Get told when the straits seize up

Transit data updates daily. One email a week when the score moved, with the chokepoint readings next to the other risk indicators.

At most one email a week, and only in weeks something actually moved. No account, one click to unsubscribe, and the address is never shared.

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Chokepoint and price data sourced as noted above. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.