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Geopolitical risk · maritime chokepoints · Brent crude

Oil Shock — The Straits That Gate the World's Crude

A fifth of the world's oil passes through two narrow waterways. When tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait collapses, supply doesn't reroute — it stops. This is the live count of what is still getting through.

CRITICAL-93.7%SEVERE DISRUPTION

Strait of Hormuz tanker transits vs baseline — the sharpest of 3 readings behind this level — the reading this page is scored on, and the one shown on the dashboard.

Every reading behind this level — the worst of them sets it
  • -57.6%SEVERE DISRUPTION
    Bab el-Mandeb Strait tanker transits vs baseline
  • -93.7%SEVERE DISRUPTION
    Strait of Hormuz tanker transits vs baseline
  • 41.1 daysDRAWING DOWN
    US days of cover, -0.7 days a week

Chokepoint Transit Collapse

Tanker transits counted daily from satellite AIS positions, against each strait's pre-disruption baseline — tankers only, because total vessel traffic recovers when container lines return while crude is still stuck. Readings as of Aug 2, 2026.

Why this can crash the market

Roughly a fifth of the world's oil squeezes through two waterways a few miles wide, and no pipeline can replace them. If the transit counts on this page collapse, the oil does not reroute — it stops, and the Brent price resets within days. From there the chain is arithmetic: fuel and freight costs feed inflation within weeks, inflation forces the Federal Reserve's hand on rates, and the rate path reprices every stock you own. It ran exactly this way in 1973, in 1979 and in 2022. That is why this page counts ships.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait

Baseline: Jan 1, 2019 – Nov 1, 2023 • Latest: Jul 26, 2026 • Source: IMF PortWatch, daily AIS tanker transit counts

SEVERE DISRUPTION
Current week, per day
8.4
Tanker transits, trailing 7-day mean
Pre-disruption baseline, per day
19.9
Daily tanker transits before the disruption
Change vs baseline
-57.6%
Against the baseline — traffic no longer passing through

Daily tanker transits — smoothed

The last twelve months — a window about current traffic, not history • 7-day trailing mean, tankers per day

Strait of Hormuz

Baseline: Jan 1, 2019 – Nov 1, 2023 • Latest: Jul 23, 2026 • Source: IMF PortWatch, daily AIS tanker transit counts

SEVERE DISRUPTION
Current week, per day
3.4
Tanker transits, trailing 7-day mean
Pre-disruption baseline, per day
54.8
Daily tanker transits before the disruption
Change vs baseline
-93.7%
Against the baseline — traffic no longer passing through

Daily tanker transits — smoothed

The last twelve months — a window about current traffic, not history • 7-day trailing mean, tankers per day

Brent Crude — The Price of the Fear

Brent is the benchmark for the two-thirds of world oil that trades by sea. When the straits squeeze, this is where the shock shows up first.

Brent Crude

Source: FRED DCOILBRENTEU (Brent, Europe), daily

Current price
$91.82
Per barrel
3-month change
-$25.80
Dollars per barrel — rising is the alarm, falling is calm
3-month % change
-21.9%
Trailing three months — rising is the alarm, falling is calm

Read the direction, not the level. On this page a rising Brent is the alarm — it is the disruption in the straits reaching the price. A falling Brent does not mean the risk is gone; it means the shock has not yet reached the market.

Historical Data

The last twelve months • Current: $91.82 • 3-month change: -$25.80 (-21.9%) • Source: FRED DCOILBRENTEU (Brent, Europe), daily

How Long the US Can Absorb It

A closed strait does not move the price on the day it closes. It moves the price when the barrels already in storage run out. This is the count of those barrels, and the rate they are leaving.

US Days of Cover

Latest week: Jul 24, 2026 • Peak in this window: 55.0 days on Oct 10, 2025 • Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — WCESTUS1, WCSSTUS1 and WCRRIUS2, weekly

DRAWING DOWN
Days of cover left
41.1 days
Every barrel held — commercial and SPR — over one day of refinery runs. Commercial alone: 23.3 days
Draining each week by
-0.7 days
Days of cover gained or lost per week, measured over the last 8 weeks
At that rate, cover lasts
57 weeks
Cover divided by the current rate. Arithmetic on today’s numbers, not a forecast — the rate changes every week
Commercial crude stocks
404.5m bbl
Held by refiners and traders — the barrels the market can actually buy
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
307.6m bbl
Government-held. Releasing it buys weeks, and refilling it later becomes new demand
Refinery runs
17.3m bbl/day
Crude put through US refineries — the denominator of every number above

Days of cover, weekly

The last two years • Commercial plus SPR over one day of refinery runs

This is the number that decides when a closed strait reaches the pump. Crude that never left the Gulf does not raise the price while refineries are still running on barrels bought months ago — it raises the price when those barrels are gone. Two of the three figures above are a choice rather than a fact: a government can release the SPR to buy weeks, and refiners can cut runs to stretch what is left, which lowers the denominator and flatters this ratio while producing less fuel. Watch the direction and the rate, not the level alone.

Why Two Straits Decide the Price of Everything

There is no pipeline big enough to replace them, and no insurance market willing to underwrite a war zone. When these waterways close, the oil simply does not move.

Strait of Hormuz

  • Carried roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption — about 21 million barrels a day — until March 2026
  • At its narrowest it is 21 miles wide, with shipping lanes two miles across
  • Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar have no other sea route out of the Gulf
  • Closed for the first time in its history in March 2026 — the risk the market had priced for decades without ever seeing it

Bab el-Mandeb Strait

  • The gate to the Suez Canal — the shortest sea route from the Gulf to Europe
  • Carried around 12% of global seaborne oil trade before attacks began
  • Diversions around Africa add 10-14 days and burn extra fuel per voyage
  • War-risk premiums and freight rates reprice within days of each attack

What a Transit Collapse Means for US Markets

Oil is the one input the American economy cannot substitute on short notice. Every post-war oil shock has shown up in inflation, interest rates and stock prices within months. The first three below have already run their course; the fourth is the one this page is counting.

1973 — The Embargo

Oil quadrupled in months. The S&P 500 lost 48% and inflation ran above 12%. The recession that followed was the worst since the Great Depression.

1979 — Iran

A supply cut of barely 5% doubled the price of crude. The Fed was forced to hike rates above 19% to break the inflation it unleashed.

2022 — The Warning Shot

Brent briefly touched $139 after Russia invaded Ukraine. CPI hit 9.1%, the Fed hiked at the fastest pace in four decades, and stocks fell 25%.

2026 — Both Straits, Live

Hormuz has been closed since March and the Bab el-Mandeb since July. No previous shock closed both at once. The counts above are what is still moving; the cover figure is how long that can be absorbed before it reaches the price.

How to Read This Page

The charts plot the 7-day trailing mean of daily tanker transits, because raw daily counts swing several-fold and are unreadable. What matters is the level against the pre-disruption baseline: a strait running at half its baseline is not a headline risk — it is a supply shock already in motion. Every barrel that stops moving through Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb reappears in the Brent price, then in the CPI, then in the rate path, and finally in your portfolio. That chain is why this page exists.

Frequently Asked Questions About Oil Shocks

Why do the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb matter so much for oil?

About 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption — roughly 21 million barrels a day — transits the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab el-Mandeb is the gate to the Suez Canal route from the Gulf to Europe. There is no pipeline capacity large enough to replace either waterway, so a closure removes supply rather than rerouting it.

What does a collapse in chokepoint transits mean for US markets?

A sustained drop in transits is a supply shock already in motion: fewer tankers means less oil delivered, which lifts the Brent price, feeds into inflation, forces a tighter rate path, and historically hits equities within months. The 1973, 1979 and 2022 episodes all followed that chain, and the 2026 closure of both straits is the live case.

If the straits are closed, why has the oil price not already spiked?

Because refineries do not run on the crude that shipped this week. They run on barrels already in storage, so a closure reaches the price only when those barrels are gone. That is why this page tracks US days of cover — commercial stocks plus the Strategic Petroleum Reserve divided by one day of refinery runs — alongside the transit counts. The transit number tells you supply has stopped; the cover number tells you how long that can be absorbed first.

How many days of oil does the US have in storage?

The live figure is on this page, from the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: commercial crude stocks plus the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, divided by the crude US refineries actually put through per day. The page also shows how many days of that cover are being lost per week, and the plain division of one by the other. That division is arithmetic on the current rate, not a forecast — the rate changes with every weekly report, and a government can slow it by releasing the SPR.

Why does the chart show a smoothed transit series?

Raw daily transit counts swing several-fold from one day to the next, which makes the raw series unreadable. The charts plot the trailing 7-day mean so the underlying disruption level is visible against the pre-disruption baseline.

Where does the data on this page come from?

Chokepoint transits come from IMF PortWatch, which counts vessel calls daily from satellite AIS positions; this page reads the tanker count rather than the all-vessel total, because container traffic returning to a strait says nothing about crude. The Brent series comes from the source named under its chart. Each block on the page prints its own source string so every number is attributable.

Get told when the straits seize up

Transit data updates daily — a collapse shows up here before it shows up at the pump. One email a week, only when the composite score moved, with the chokepoint readings alongside the other risk indicators.

One email a week, and only in weeks the composite score actually moved. No account, one click to unsubscribe, and the address is never shared.

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Chokepoint and price data sourced as noted above. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.