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BEA accounts · interest costs · the 30-year yield

Debt Spiral — What It Costs to Carry America's Debt

The US government's single fastest-growing expense is the interest on money it has already spent. This page measures that bill the only honest way — interest payments divided by federal current expenditures, both from the same BEA quarterly accounts, back to 1947 — alongside the 30-year yield that decides what the next decades of borrowing will cost.

CRITICAL16.06%CLIMBING TOWARD THE RECORD

of federal spending, against a 23.48% record — the reading this page is scored on, and the one shown on the dashboard.

The Interest Bill in Three Numbers

Quarter beginning Apr 1, 2026: interest payments of $1.25tn against current expenditures of $7.76tn, both at annual rates from the same BEA national accounts — one consistent basis, and a near neighbour of the unified-budget outlay total rather than the same thing. Source: FRED A091RC1Q027SBEA and FGEXPND — BEA federal interest payments over federal current expenditures, quarterly.

Interest as a share of federal spending
16.06%
Quarter beginning Apr 1, 2026 — $1.25tn of $7.76tn
Record high
23.48%
Set in Jan 1, 1991 — the highest quarter in the series, which the current reading is climbing toward
30-year Treasury yield
5.21%
As of Jul 30, 2026 — what new long-term borrowing costs today

Why this can crash the market

The US government now spends more of its budget on interest than at any time since the early 1990s — and it borrows the money to pay it. That is the spiral: interest adds to the deficit, the deficit adds to the debt, and the debt adds to next year's interest. What breaks first is the Treasury market's buyers, who demand higher yields to fund a borrower whose fastest-growing expense is its own interest bill — the 30-year yield on this page is that demand, live. What breaks next is everything priced off those yields: mortgages, corporate credit, and the discount rate behind every stock in your retirement account. A government can carry this for years. What it cannot do is carry it once investors decide the spiral is the story — the 1991 peak in the chart is what that looked like last time.

The Share of Spending Eaten by Interest, Since 1947

Interest payments as a percentage of everything the federal government spends, quarterly. Both sides of the ratio come from the same BEA national accounts, so this is one measurement basis, not two sources stitched together. The record is in the chart itself, and the line is climbing back toward it.

Interest as a Share of Federal Spending

Source: FRED A091RC1Q027SBEA and FGEXPND — BEA federal interest payments over federal current expenditures, quarterly • Yield: FRED DGS30 — 30-year Treasury constant maturity yield, daily • Latest quarter begins Apr 1, 2026 • Quarterly since 1947 — as far back as the BEA accounts go, and what puts the post-war record in view

CLIMBING TOWARD THE RECORD

Read the shape, not just the level. The 1980s climb ended when rates fell through the 1990s and the share bled back down from its Jan 1, 1991 record. The current climb is being driven the other way: every bond issued at today's yields — the 30-year at 5.21% as of Jul 30, 2026 — locks in a higher interest bill for decades, so the share keeps rising even if nothing else changes. That is the spiral mechanic made visible.

How to Read This Page

The ratio here is clean by construction: interest payments and current expenditures both come from the same BEA quarterly accounts, at annual rates, so nothing is mixed across sources or bases — and the source string is printed above, not buried. Nothing on this page is a forecast: it does not claim a default probability, a crisis date, or a hit rate, because those numbers cannot be computed from real data — anyone who quotes you one is inventing it. What it gives you is the measurement: how much of every federal dollar now goes to creditors instead of everything else, and what the market charges for the next thirty years of borrowing. Who some of those creditors are — and why Japan might sell — is on the treasury dump page, and the rest of the external risks are on the risks hub.

Frequently Asked Questions About US Debt Costs

How much interest does the US pay on its debt?

The current figure, at an annual rate, is on this page — over a trillion dollars a year. It comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly accounts, which report federal interest payments on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. The page also shows what the government spends in total, measured on the same basis, so the ratio between the two is clean.

What share of federal spending goes to interest?

The current share is the headline number on this page, plotted quarterly back to 1947. It is climbing back toward its record high of 23.48%, set in January 1991 — a peak you can see in the chart itself. For most of the post-war period the share sat in single digits; the present reading is well above that norm.

What is a debt spiral?

A debt spiral is when a borrower has to borrow just to cover the interest on what it already owes. The interest adds to the deficit, the deficit adds to the debt, and the larger debt produces a larger interest bill next year — the loop feeds itself. Whether the US is in one is a matter of definition and debate; what is not debatable is the share of spending now going to interest, which is the series this page tracks.

When was the US interest burden this high before?

The record in this series is 23.48% of federal spending, reached in January 1991, after a decade of high interest rates and large deficits. What followed is visible in the same chart: falling rates through the 1990s brought the share back down. The current reading is climbing back toward that record, which is exactly why this page exists.

Why does the 30-year Treasury yield matter?

Because it is the price of the government's longest borrowing, set daily by the market. Every bond the Treasury issues at today's yield locks in interest costs for decades, so a high 30-year yield hardens next year's interest bill — and the year after that. It also anchors mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, which is how the government's financing problem becomes everyone else's.

Where does this data come from?

Both sides of the ratio — interest payments and total federal outlays — come from the same Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly national accounts, so the share is measured on one consistent basis rather than mixing sources. The 30-year Treasury yield comes from the source named under the chart. Each block on the page prints its own source string so every number is attributable.

Get told when the interest bill jumps

The interest share and the 30-year yield, alongside the crash-risk score and the other risk indicators — one email a week, only when the composite score moved. The cost of carrying the debt shows up in this data before it shows up in the debate.

One email a week, and only in weeks the composite score actually moved. No account, one click to unsubscribe, and the address is never shared.

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Accounts and yield data sourced as noted above. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.