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BEA accounts · interest costs · the 30-year yield

Debt Spiral — What It Costs to Carry America's Debt

The fastest-growing expense of the US government is the interest on money it has already spent. This page divides interest payments by federal current expenditures, both from the same BEA quarterly accounts, back to 1947. Next to it sits the 30-year yield that sets the cost of the next decades of borrowing.

CRITICAL16.06%CLIMBING TOWARD THE RECORD

of federal spending, against a 23.48% record — the reading this page is scored on, and the one shown on the dashboard.

The Interest Bill in Three Numbers

Quarter beginning Apr 1, 2026: interest payments of $1.25tn against current expenditures of $7.76tn, both at annual rates from the same BEA national accounts. This is close to the unified-budget outlay total, but not the same thing. Source: FRED A091RC1Q027SBEA and FGEXPND — BEA federal interest payments over federal current expenditures, quarterly.

Interest as a share of federal spending
16.06%
Quarter beginning Apr 1, 2026 — $1.25tn of $7.76tn
Record high
23.48%
Set in Jan 1, 1991 — the highest quarter in the series, which the current reading is climbing toward
30-year Treasury yield
5.36%
As of Sep 15, 2026 — what new long-term borrowing costs today

Why this can crash the market

The US government now spends more of its budget on interest than at any time since the early 1990s, and it borrows to pay it. That is the spiral: interest adds to the deficit, the deficit adds to the debt, and the debt adds to next year's interest. Buyers of Treasuries then ask for higher yields, and everything priced off those yields gets more expensive: mortgages, corporate credit, and stock valuations.

The Share of Spending Eaten by Interest, Since 1947

Interest payments as a percentage of all federal spending, quarterly. Both sides of the ratio come from the same BEA national accounts, so this is one measurement basis, not two sources joined together.

Interest as a Share of Federal Spending

Source: FRED A091RC1Q027SBEA and FGEXPND — BEA federal interest payments over federal current expenditures, quarterly • Yield: FRED DGS30 — 30-year Treasury constant maturity yield, daily • Latest quarter begins Apr 1, 2026 • Quarterly since 1947 — as far back as the BEA accounts go, and what puts the post-war record in view

CLIMBING TOWARD THE RECORD
Interest as % of federal spending
16.06▲ 0.19 (1.20%) vs prevApr 1, 2026

Read the shape, not just the level. The 1980s climb ended when rates fell through the 1990s and the share bled back down from its Jan 1, 1991 record. The current climb runs the other way. Every bond issued at today's yields, with the 30-year at 5.36% as of Sep 15, 2026, locks in a higher interest bill for decades. The share keeps rising even if nothing else changes.

Full explanation of the US Federal Interest Costs chart →

How to Read This Page

Interest payments and current expenditures both come from the same BEA quarterly accounts, at annual rates, so nothing is mixed across sources or bases. This page gives no default probability and no crisis date, because neither can be computed from this data. It gives the measurement: how much of every federal dollar goes to creditors, and what the market charges for the next thirty years of borrowing. Why Japan, one of those creditors, might sell is on the treasury dump page, and the rest of the external risks are on the risks hub.

Frequently Asked Questions About US Debt Costs

How much interest does the US pay on its debt?

The current figure, at an annual rate, is on this page: over a trillion dollars a year. It comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly accounts, which report federal interest payments at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The page also shows total government spending on the same basis, so the ratio between the two is consistent.

What share of federal spending goes to interest?

The current share is the headline number on this page, plotted quarterly back to 1947. It is climbing back toward the record of 23.48%, set in January 1991, which you can see in the chart. For most of the post-war period the share stayed in single digits.

What is a debt spiral?

A debt spiral is when a borrower must borrow to cover the interest on what it already owes. The interest adds to the deficit, the deficit adds to the debt, and the larger debt gives a larger interest bill next year. Whether the US is in one depends on the definition. What is measurable is the share of spending that goes to interest, which is the series on this page.

When was the US interest burden this high before?

The record in this series is 23.48% of federal spending, reached in January 1991 after a decade of high interest rates and large deficits. The same chart shows what followed: falling rates through the 1990s brought the share back down. The current reading is climbing back toward that record.

Why does the 30-year Treasury yield matter?

It is the price of the government's longest borrowing, set daily by the market. Every bond issued at today's yield locks in interest costs for decades, so a high 30-year yield fixes next year's interest bill and the years after it. It also anchors mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, which is how the government's financing problem reaches everyone else.

Where does this data come from?

Both sides of the ratio, interest payments and total federal outlays, come from the same Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly national accounts, so the share uses one consistent basis. The 30-year Treasury yield comes from the source named under the chart. Each block prints its own source.

Get told when the interest bill jumps

The interest share and the 30-year yield, next to the crash-risk score and the other risk indicators. One email a week when the score moved.

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Accounts and yield data sourced as noted above. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.