Most valuation dashboards ask you to trust a number. This page exists so you do not have to. Every series we read, every formula we apply and every threshold we score against is written down below. If our reading disagrees with someone else's, you can find out why.
Buffett Indicator
The Wilshire 5000 index level is treated as one index point per $1bn of market capitalisation, then divided by the most recent quarterly GDP figure published before that trading day, expressed as a percentage. Trading days on which the index has no close are skipped rather than carried as zero. Our reading for July 2026 is 234.3%, which matches the figure GuruFocus published for the same date.
Yield Curve
Read directly from the Federal Reserve series T10Y2Y — the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury constant maturity spread. No transformation is applied.
Shiller PE (CAPE)
Taken monthly from multpl.com, which publishes Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings series. If the page layout changes and no rows parse, the indicator reports an error rather than a stale or invented value.
US Dollar Index, M2 and Real Interest Rates
DXY comes from Yahoo Finance (DX-Y.NYB). M2 comes from the Federal Reserve series M2SL. The real interest rate is the Federal Reserve series DFII10 — the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities constant maturity yield, which is the real rate directly. It reconciles with the nominal series: DGS10 minus T10YIE equals DFII10.
Each indicator scores as positive, warning or negative against the fixed thresholds above. Crash risk is the share of the three crash indicators reading negative. Growth probability is the share of the three growth indicators reading positive. Both are plain counts — there is no weighting, no model fitting and no discretion.
Growth probability above 50% with crash risk at or below 50% reads as GROWTH POSITIVE. Crash risk above 50% with growth probability at or below 50% reads as CRASH RISKY. Anything else reads as NEUTRAL MARKET.
Live values are refreshed hourly and one snapshot is stored per day, so the history shown on this site is our own recorded series rather than a recomputation after the fact.
These are valuation and condition gauges, not timing signals. The Buffett Indicator and CAPE have both stayed in expensive territory for years at a stretch while markets kept climbing. An elevated reading says future returns start from a worse price and the market has less cushion when something breaks. It does not say when. Nothing on this site is investment advice.
Found a number you think is wrong? Check the data changelog — every correction we have made is listed there with the date it shipped.