About MarketCrash
Economic indicators and market risk, built on named public data. Every source series, threshold and formula is published, so any number here can be checked against its source.
Our Mission
MarketCrash measures market conditions. It does not predict them. The dashboard combines widely watched economic indicators, such as the Buffett Indicator, the yield curve spread and the Shiller PE ratio, into one market risk score. Every threshold is fixed in advance and every formula is published.
The site is built to be checked. Every series is named, every correction is logged, and any number here can be verified against its source.
Key Features
Real-Time Economic Indicators
- Buffett Indicator (Market Cap to GDP ratio)
- Yield Curve Spread (10Y-2Y Treasury)
- Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE)
- US Dollar Index (DXY)
- M2 Money Supply
- Real Interest Rates — 10-year TIPS yield
Advanced Analytics
- Market crash probability calculation
- Growth probability assessment
- Recession signal monitoring
- Historical trend analysis
- Risk level categorization
- Comparative market analysis
Risk Assessment Methodology
Our risk assessment combines several widely followed economic indicators into three market regimes.
Growth probability > 50% and crash risk ≤ 50%
Mixed signals or both indicators ≤ 50%
Crash risk > 50% and growth probability ≤ 50%
Who This Site Is For
Who finds these numbers useful, and why.
Individual Investors
If you manage your own money, the dashboard gives you the public series behind the headlines: valuations, the yield curve, credit spreads. Every threshold is shown, so you can judge each reading yourself.
Students & Researchers
If you study recessions or market history, every chart names its source series, so you can pull the same data straight from FRED, the SEC or IMF PortWatch and check the work.
Writers & Journalists
If you cover markets and need a number you can cite, each reading prints its source, its threshold and its last update. Every correction is logged in the changelog.
The Skeptical
Nothing here asks for trust. Thresholds are fixed in advance, formulas are published, and corrections are logged instead of quietly edited.
Who Builds This
This site is built and maintained by one person.
- EVERY SERIES NAMED — FRED, YAHOO FINANCE, MULTPL, IMF PORTWATCH
- THRESHOLDS FIXED IN ADVANCE, APPLIED IDENTICALLY EVERY DAY
- CORRECTIONS LOGGED PUBLICLY IN THE DATA CHANGELOG
I build and maintain MarketCrash on my own. Every indicator is computed from a named public series: Federal Reserve FRED, Yahoo Finance, multpl.com and IMF PortWatch. The series ID, threshold and formula behind each reading are published on the methodology page.
Thresholds are fixed in advance and applied identically every day. When a data source changes, or a past reading turns out to be wrong, the correction goes into the data changelog.
Contact & Support
For questions about the methodology, the data sources or a number that looks wrong, reach out through taiberium.me.