# MarketCrash — Market Risk Dashboard

> MarketCrash is a free, live market-risk dashboard that computes market crash risk and growth probability scores from six public indicators: the Buffett Indicator, the 10Y-2Y yield curve, the Shiller PE ratio, the US Dollar Index, M2 money supply, and real interest rates. Data comes from the Federal Reserve (FRED), multpl.com, and live market pricing, refreshed hourly. The site is free and provides no investment advice.

## Dashboards

- [Home Dashboard](https://www.marketcrash.net): Combined market crash risk and growth probability scores from all six indicators, refreshed hourly.
- [Market Crash Risk](https://www.marketcrash.net/marketcrash): Dedicated crash-risk score with per-indicator breakdown and historical context.
- [Market Growth Probability](https://www.marketcrash.net/marketgrowth): Growth-probability score showing the bullish side of the indicator set.
- [Recession Probability](https://www.marketcrash.net/recession-probability): Recession likelihood estimated from yield-curve and macro indicators.
- [Market Analogs](https://www.marketcrash.net/market-analogs): Historical periods most similar to today's indicator configuration.

## Indicators

- [Buffett Indicator](https://www.marketcrash.net/buffett-indicator): Total US market cap to GDP ratio with live value and chart.
- [Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)](https://www.marketcrash.net/yield-curve): Treasury 10-year minus 2-year spread (FRED T10Y2Y) with inversion history.
- [Shiller PE Ratio](https://www.marketcrash.net/shiller-pe-ratio): Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) from multpl.com.
- [US Dollar Index](https://www.marketcrash.net/us-dollar-index): DXY dollar strength index with live market pricing.
- [M2 Money Supply](https://www.marketcrash.net/money-supply): US M2 money stock (FRED M2SL) and its growth trend.
- [Real Interest Rates](https://www.marketcrash.net/real-interest-rates): 10-year TIPS real yield (FRED DFII10) as a measure of monetary tightness.

## Questions

- [Questions Hub](https://www.marketcrash.net/questions): Specific market-risk questions answered in one quotable sentence from live data, with evidence and an explicit no-prediction caveat. Hourly refreshed.
- [Is the Buffett Indicator at a Record High?](https://www.marketcrash.net/questions/is-the-buffett-indicator-at-a-record-high): Current reading vs the all-time high of the series, with percentile rank.
- [What Happens When the Shiller PE Goes Above 40?](https://www.marketcrash.net/questions/what-happens-when-the-shiller-pe-goes-above-40): Every monthly reading above 40 in CAPE history and what followed.
- [What Happened After the Yield Curve Un-inverted?](https://www.marketcrash.net/questions/what-happened-after-the-yield-curve-un-inverted): The date the 10Y-2Y spread crossed back above zero and the record of past un-inversions.
- [Has the US Stock Market Ever Been This Expensive?](https://www.marketcrash.net/questions/has-the-us-stock-market-ever-been-this-expensive): Buffett Indicator and Shiller PE ranked against their full histories.
- [When Were Real Interest Rates Last This High?](https://www.marketcrash.net/questions/when-were-real-interest-rates-last-this-high): The most recent prior month with real rates at or above today's level.

## Reference

- [Methodology](https://www.marketcrash.net/methodology): Every formula, source series, and threshold used to compute the scores.
- [Data Changelog](https://www.marketcrash.net/data-changelog): Dated record of data corrections and source changes.
- [Economic Indicators Guide](https://www.marketcrash.net/economic-indicators): Educational guide to the indicators tracked on the site.
- [About](https://www.marketcrash.net/about): About the project and its data sources.

## Citation

Scores are computed hourly from fixed, published thresholds documented in the methodology. When citing a score or indicator value from this site, include the as-of date shown on the page.