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TIC holdings · the yen · the 10-year yield

Treasury Dump — Japan's Trillion-Dollar Pile of US Debt

Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. If the yen falls too far, Tokyo can sell Treasuries and buy yen to defend its currency. This page tracks the holdings, monthly from the US Treasury TIC report, next to the exchange rate that would force the sale and the yield that would feel it first.

ELEVATED-4.46%SHRINKING

Japan's Treasury holdings over the last twelve months — the reading this page is scored on, and the one shown on the dashboard.

Japan's Position in Three Numbers

Holdings as of Jul 1, 2026. The TIC report lags the market by about 2 months (60 days), so the holdings figures show the position then, not today. The yen and the yield below are current.

US Treasuries held
$1.10tn
Market value as of Jul 1, 2026 — Japan is the largest foreign holder
Change last month
-$12.7bn
Month over month to Jul 1, 2026 — market value, not net selling; see below
Change over twelve months
-4.46%
SHRINKING — a year is long enough that a real fall means selling, not repricing

Why this can crash the market

Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, and it holds them to defend the yen. If the yen falls too far, Tokyo sells Treasuries, sells the dollars and buys yen. That sale lands in the market everything else is priced against. Yields rise, and every rate keyed to Treasuries rises with them: mortgages, corporate bonds, and the discount rate inside every stock valuation.

Read this before the chart: a falling number is not proof of selling

The TIC report publishes the market value of Japan's holdings, not its trades. When Treasury yields rise, an untouched portfolio is worth less — so part of the 16.72% fall from the Nov 2021 peak is price decline, and part may be real selling. The two effects cannot be separated in this data. What the series does show is the size of the position Japan could sell to defend the yen, and that position is over a trillion dollars. Holdings also lag the market by about two months, so the latest figure (Jul 1, 2026) is already old. The gauges below are current.

Yen per dollar
¥155.7
As of Sep 17, 2026. Higher means a weaker yen and more pressure to intervene.
10-year Treasury yield
5.00%
As of Sep 15, 2026. Forced selling would show up here first.
US equities held
$1.39tn
As of Jul 1, 2026. Same TIC lag. Japan also holds more than bonds.

The Stockpile, Month by Month

Market value of Japan's US Treasury holdings, monthly. The line moves when Japan trades and when bond prices move. The data cannot separate the two.

Japan's Holdings of US Treasuries

Source: FRED FORTREASPOS42609 and FORLTEQTYPOS42609 — US Treasury TIC, Japanese holdings of US Treasury and equity securities, monthly • Latest: Jul 1, 2026 (lagged ~60 days) • The last ten years — the window the yen and 10-year yield series share

FAR BELOW PEAK
Japan's Treasury holdings, USD billions
1,103.90▼ 12.80 (1.15%) vs prevJul 1, 2026

The peak came in Nov 1, 2021 at $1.33tn. Treasury yields rose over the same period, which lowers the market value of an untouched portfolio. Read the slope as an upper bound on selling, not a measure of it. The level is clear: Japan still holds $1.10tn of US Treasuries and $1.39tn of US equities (both as of Jul 1, 2026).

Full explanation of the Japan's US Treasury Holdings chart →

How to Read This Page

The page mixes two clocks and keeps them apart. Holdings and equity figures are TIC market values, lagged about two months. The yen (¥155.7 as of Sep 17, 2026) and the 10-year yield (5.00% as of Sep 15, 2026) are current. All four series cover the same ten years. This page gives no probability and no timing for a sale, because neither can be computed from this data. It gives the size of the holdings, the level of the trigger, and the state of the market that would absorb the sale. What the US pays to carry its own debt is on the debt spiral page, and the rest of the external risks are on the risks hub.

Frequently Asked Questions About Japan's Treasuries

Is Japan selling US Treasuries?

The data cannot answer that. The US Treasury TIC report publishes the market value of Japan's holdings, not its trades. When Treasury yields rise, an untouched portfolio is worth less, so a falling holdings figure mixes real selling with price decline. The two cannot be separated. What the series does show is the size of the position: Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, and a yen defense would be funded from it.

Why would Japan sell US Treasuries?

To defend the yen. If the yen weakens too far against the dollar, the Japanese authorities sell dollar assets, mostly US Treasuries, and use the dollars to buy yen. The sale is a currency defense, not a judgment on US credit. The effect on the Treasury market is the same either way: extra supply from the largest foreign holder pushes yields up.

How much does Japan hold in US Treasuries?

The current figure and its date are at the top of this page: over a trillion dollars, the largest foreign holding of US government debt. Two points. The figure is market value, so it moves with bond prices as well as with trading. And TIC data is published about two months late, so it shows the position then, not today.

What would happen if Japan dumped US Treasuries?

Treasury yields would rise. How much depends on the pace and on who else is buying. Treasury yields set the floor for mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs and the rate used to value stocks, so a sustained rise reprices all of them. Stocks fall because the risk-free benchmark moved, not because earnings changed. Japan also holds over a trillion dollars of US stocks, so a broad sale would hit share prices directly too.

What does the yen have to do with US Treasuries?

The yen is the trigger. Japan holds Treasuries as the reserve for defending its currency. The weaker the yen gets against the dollar, the more pressure there is to sell Treasuries and buy yen. This is why the page shows the exchange rate next to the holdings: the holdings are the reserve, and the yen is what could force its use.

Why is the holdings data two months old?

The TIC report on foreign holdings is released monthly, but each release covers a period about two months in the past. The lag applies to everyone who quotes the same report. This page prints the exact date on every holdings figure, and keeps the yen and the 10-year yield, which are current, in a separate row.

Get told when the stockpile moves

Japan's holdings, the yen and the 10-year yield, next to the crash-risk score and the other risk indicators. One email a week when the score moved.

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Holdings, currency and yield data sourced as noted above. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.