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Live indicator · multpl.com data

Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE) — Cyclically Adjusted PE

Robert Shiller's valuation metric uses ten years of smoothed earnings to remove short-term noise. Past readings above 30 came with weak long-term returns.

Shiller PE Ratio

Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE). Measures stock market valuation relative to 10-year average earnings. High values indicate overvaluation.

Thresholds: Negative >35 • Warning ≥25 • Positive <25

NEGATIVE

Today's reading sits at the 98.7th percentile of 1868 months since 1871.

What followed the last times →
Current Value
40
3-month Change
-0.64
3-month % Change
-1.56%

Why this can crash the market

The CAPE ratio shows how many years of earnings you pay for up front. At extreme readings, the price already assumes a decade of perfect growth. The multiple breaks first: when growth disappoints, investors stop paying for those future years and prices fall even while companies stay profitable. The S&P 500 sits inside most retirement accounts.

Historical Data

The last three years • Source: multpl.com Shiller PE by month

Shiller PE Ratio
40▼ 0 (1.10%) vs prevOct 23, 2026
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What Is the Shiller PE Ratio?

The CAPE ratio divides the S&P 500 price by the average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. By smoothing earnings across a full business cycle, it avoids the distortions that plague the standard PE ratio during booms and recessions.

How It's Calculated

  • CAPE = S&P 500 Price / 10-Year Avg Real Earnings
  • Earnings adjusted for CPI inflation
  • Smooths out business cycle fluctuations
  • Historical average: approximately 16-17

Valuation Thresholds

  • Below 15: Undervalued. Strong returns followed in the past.
  • 15-25: Fair value range
  • 25-35: Overvalued. Below-average returns followed.
  • Above 35: Extreme. Every earlier instance came before a crash.

CAPE and Future Returns

A high CAPE has come with low returns over the next ten years, and a low CAPE with high returns. This makes it useful for setting long-term expectations.

CAPE Below 15

Historical 10-year average annual return: about 10-12%.

CAPE 20-30

Historical 10-year average annual return: ~4-6%. Decent but below the long-term average of 7-10%.

CAPE Above 30

Historical 10-year average annual return: ~0-3%. Often accompanied by significant drawdowns along the way.

Historical Extremes

What followed the last times →

CAPE hit 44.2 in December 1999, its highest reading, just before the dot-com crash took 78% off the NASDAQ. It reached 27.5 before the 2008 crisis. An extreme CAPE does not say when a crash comes. It says the price already assumes everything goes right.

Get told when CAPE moves

The Shiller PE moves slowly. When it crosses a threshold or moves 2% in a week, it shows up in the email, next to the crash-risk score. At most one email a week.

At most one email a week, and only in weeks something actually moved. No account, one click to unsubscribe, and the address is never shared.

Daily Stock Screeners

The same market, one company at a time: which S&P 500 stocks sit at their highs or lows, are oversold, trade under 15 times earnings or below book value today.

All screeners →

Below 200-Week MA

144 / 495

Constituents whose latest weekly close sits under the simple average of the last 200 weekly closes.

FMC LULU ENPH CHTR …

Down 50% From 5-Year High

62 / 495

Constituents trading at half or less of their highest weekly close of the last five years.

FMC ENPH CHTR ARE …

Near 52-Week Low

19 / 495

Constituents whose latest weekly close sits within 5% of their lowest weekly low of the past year.

TMUS WYNN APP CMG …

10-Year High Dividend Yield

0 / 495

Dividend payers whose current yield is the highest reading of their own ten-year history.

Below Book Value

14 / 495

Constituents whose share price sits under the accounting value of their net assets.

FMC ARE MOS LKQ …

Near 52-Week High

33 / 495

Constituents whose latest close sits within 2% of their highest weekly high of the past year.

TECH CVX PAYC HAS …

Oversold: RSI Under 30

6 / 495

Constituents whose 14-week relative strength index has fallen under 30 after a run of weekly losses.

MGM FMC WYNN LKQ …

P/E Under 15

87 / 495

Profitable constituents priced at less than 15 times their trailing twelve-month earnings.

CHTR ALL BBWI AES …

Explore Related Indicators

Buffett Indicator

Market cap to GDP — another powerful valuation metric

Yield Curve

10Y-2Y Treasury spread — #1 recession predictor since 1950

US Dollar Index

DXY tracking the strength of the US dollar

Money Supply (M2)

M2 money supply growth — liquidity driving asset prices

Real Interest Rates

Inflation-adjusted rates driving borrowing costs

Fear and Greed Index

Market sentiment from volatility, credit spreads, momentum and safe-haven demand

Methodology

Every formula, source series and threshold behind these numbers

Shiller PE data provided for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.