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Private credit · BDC filings · credit spreads

Private Credit — Does the Market Still Trust the Loans?

Private credit funds lend to companies that banks often will not, and they value those loans themselves. No market price checks them, except one: listed business development companies (BDCs) hold the same loans and trade every day. This page shows their share prices against the NAV they report to the SEC, and what the bond market charges similar borrowers.

ELEVATED-5.8%DISCOUNT

the median of the 6 largest listed BDCs, share price against reported NAV — the reading this page is scored on, and the one shown on the dashboard.

Private Credit in Three Numbers

How the market prices the largest listed private credit funds against their own loan values, and what it charges high-yield borrowers. Readings as of Sep 18, 2026.

Median price vs NAV
-5.8%
DISCOUNT — median of the 6 largest listed BDCs
BDCs below NAV
4 of 6
Shares priced under the loan values the manager reports
High-yield spread
2.70 pp
Over Treasuries, as of Sep 17, 2026 — the public-market price of risky lending

Why this can crash the market

Private credit lends to mid-sized companies that banks often will not, and its loans are valued by the lenders themselves, not by a market. That works while borrowers pay. If defaults rise, the funds mark their loans down late, investors ask for their money back, and new lending stops. The companies that depend on those loans then cut jobs and investment, and the banks and insurers that lend to or invest in those funds share the losses.

Where the Market Doubts the Loan Book

Share price from the market, NAV per share from each BDC's latest 10-Q or 10-K. NAV describes the end of the last quarter, so every figure carries its own date.

The 6 Largest Listed BDCs, Ranked by Discount

Sources: SEC EDGAR company facts (XBRL), NetAssetValuePerShare from each BDC's own 10-Q and 10-K • Yahoo Finance — last daily close

DEEPEST DISCOUNT: FSK -35.9%
BDCShare priceNAV per sharePrice vs NAV
FS KKR Capital
FSK
$11.74
close Sep 17, 2026
$18.30
as of Jun 30, 2026
-35.9%
DEEP DISCOUNT
Blue Owl Capital
OBDC
$11.35
close Sep 17, 2026
$14.26
as of Jun 30, 2026
-20.4%
DEEP DISCOUNT
Golub Capital BDC
GBDC
$12.73
close Sep 17, 2026
$14.25
as of Jun 30, 2026
-10.7%
DISCOUNT
Blackstone Secured Lending
BXSL
$25.32
close Sep 17, 2026
$25.53
as of Jun 30, 2026
-0.8%
NEAR OR ABOVE NAV
Ares Capital
ARCC
$19.65
close Sep 17, 2026
$19.35
as of Jun 30, 2026
+1.6%
NEAR OR ABOVE NAV
Main Street Capital
MAIN
$57.03
close Sep 17, 2026
$33.92
as of Jun 30, 2026
+68.1%
NEAR OR ABOVE NAV

Sorted by price against NAV, deepest discount first. A minus sign is a discount: the market pays less for a share than the manager says its loans are worth.

What the Bond Market Charges Risky Borrowers

Private credit borrowers are mostly companies too small or too leveraged for investment-grade bonds. The high-yield spread is what the public market charges that kind of borrower over Treasuries.

US High-Yield Option-Adjusted Spread

Source: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 — ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread, daily • Latest: Sep 17, 2026 • The last three years

CALM
US high-yield spread, percentage points
2.70Sep 17, 2026

This chart has a limit. It measures public junk bonds, not private loans. No free daily index of private or leveraged loan prices exists, so the bond spread stands in: when it widens, lenders of every kind charge risky companies more, and the loans already on the books are worth less.

How to Read This Page

Share prices are the last daily close. NAV per share comes from each BDC's own SEC filing and is a quarter old by the time it is filed, so a discount can show news the next NAV has not included yet. Listed BDCs are a small part of private credit: most of the market sits in private funds that publish no price. This page gives no crisis probability and no timing. It shows where the market prices the loans below their reported value. Read it with the AI debt page and the rest of the risks section.

Frequently Asked Questions About Private Credit

What is private credit?

Private credit is lending by funds instead of banks. An asset manager raises money from pension funds, insurers and wealthy investors, and lends it directly to mid-sized companies, mostly at floating rates. The loans are not traded, so there is no market price for them. The lender values them itself, usually once a quarter.

Is there a private credit crisis?

This page computes no crisis probability, because that cannot be measured. What can be measured is whether the public market trusts the loan values. Listed business development companies hold private loans and report a net asset value per share. When their shares trade far below that NAV, investors are saying the loans are worth less than the lenders report. The high-yield spread shows what the public market charges similar borrowers.

What is a BDC and why does this page use them?

A business development company (BDC) is a US fund, regulated under the Investment Company Act, that lends to private mid-sized companies. Many BDCs trade on the stock exchange. That makes them the only daily market price for a private credit loan book: the share price is set by the market, and the NAV per share is set by the manager and filed with the SEC.

What does a discount to NAV mean?

It means one share costs less than the loans and cash behind it, as the manager values them. A small discount is normal. A wide one means investors expect write-downs, higher defaults or dividend cuts that the reported NAV does not show yet. A premium means investors trust the manager enough to pay more than the book value.

How current are the numbers on this page?

Share prices are the last daily close. NAV per share comes from the latest 10-Q or 10-K filing, so it describes the end of the last quarter and is filed several weeks after that. A discount can therefore reflect news that the next NAV will include. Every NAV on this page is printed with its period end.

Do BDCs show the whole private credit market?

No. Listed BDCs hold only part of private credit. Most of the market sits in private funds, non-traded BDCs and insurance balance sheets that publish no daily price. The listed BDCs are used here because they are the part the market prices every day. Read them as a signal about the market, not as a full measure of it.

Get told when the discounts widen

The median BDC discount and the high-yield spread, next to the crash-risk score and the other risk indicators. One email a week when the score moved.

At most one email a week, and only in weeks something actually moved. No account, one click to unsubscribe, and the address is never shared.

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Every formula, source series and threshold behind these numbers

NAV figures sourced from SEC filings as noted above. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.