As of Jul 27, 2026, the composite crash-risk score is 67.0% — 2 of 3 crash indicators (Buffett Indicator, 10Y–2Y yield curve, Shiller PE ratio) are reading negative against their fixed thresholds. Each indicator below shows its live value, signal and full historical chart.
Market capitalization to GDP ratio. Warren Buffett's preferred valuation metric for the overall stock market.
View chart ↓US Treasury yield curve spread (10Y-2Y). Negative values indicate inversion, often predicting recession.
View chart ↓Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE). Measures stock market valuation relative to 10-year average earnings. High values indicate overvaluation.
View chart ↓Market capitalization to GDP ratio. Warren Buffett's preferred valuation metric for the overall stock market.
Thresholds: Negative >150 • Warning ≥120 • Positive <120
Today's reading sits at the 99.4th percentile of 451 months since 1989.
3 years • Current: 234.3 • 3-month change: +10.47 (+4.68%) • Source: Yahoo Finance ^W5000 (Wilshire 5000) / FRED GDP, quarterly
US Treasury yield curve spread (10Y-2Y). Negative values indicate inversion, often predicting recession.
Thresholds: Negative ≤-0.3 • Warning ≤0.2 • Positive >0.2
Today's reading sits at the 33rd percentile of 602 months since 1976.
3 years • Current: 0.36 • 3-month change: -0.17 (-32.08%) • Source: FRED T10Y2Y, daily
Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE). Measures stock market valuation relative to 10-year average earnings. High values indicate overvaluation.
Thresholds: Negative >35 • Warning ≥25 • Positive <25
Today's reading sits at the 98.8th percentile of 1865 months since 1871.
2.9 years • Current: 40.46 • 3-month change: +0.18 (+0.45%) • Source: multpl.com Shiller PE by month
Deep dive into market cap to GDP ratio with live chart
Understanding the 10Y-2Y spread and recession predictions
CAPE ratio explained with historical analysis
Combined recession risk assessment for 2026
When did the market last look like this — and what followed
Every formula, source series and threshold behind these numbers