Crash risk monitor

Market Crash Indicators

As of Oct 26, 2026, the composite crash-risk score is 67.0% — 2 of 3 crash indicators (Buffett Indicator, 10Y–2Y yield curve, Shiller PE ratio) are reading negative against their fixed thresholds. Each indicator below shows its live value, signal and full historical chart.

HIGH RISK

Crash Signal Board

2 NEGATIVE0 WARNING1 POSITIVE

Buffett IndicatorNEGATIVE

230%+5.00 pp (+2.22%)

Market capitalization to GDP ratio. Warren Buffett's preferred valuation metric for the overall stock market.

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Yield CurvePOSITIVE

0.31%-0.05 pp (-13.89%)

US Treasury yield curve spread (10Y-2Y). Negative values indicate inversion, often predicting recession.

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Shiller PE RatioNEGATIVE

40-0.64 (-1.56%)

Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE). Measures stock market valuation relative to 10-year average earnings. High values indicate overvaluation.

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Buffett Indicator

Market capitalization to GDP ratio. Warren Buffett's preferred valuation metric for the overall stock market.

Thresholds: Negative >150 • Warning ≥120 • Positive <120

NEGATIVE

Today's reading sits at the 99.3th percentile of 382 months since 1995.

What followed the last times →

Current Value

230%

3-month Change

+5.00 pp

3-month % Change

+2.22%

Why this can crash the market

A stock market cannot grow faster than its economy forever. When the whole market is priced far above the country's yearly output, future returns can only come from earnings catching up or from prices falling. At this level there is little cushion left: one bad quarter for earnings or rates, and the same index funds that bought on the way up sell on the way down.

Historical Data

The last three years • Source: Yahoo Finance ^DWCF (Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market) / FRED GDP, quarterly

Buffett Indicator

230▼ 1 (0.48%) vs prevOct 23, 2026

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Yield Curve

US Treasury yield curve spread (10Y-2Y). Negative values indicate inversion, often predicting recession.

Thresholds: Negative ≤-0.3 • Warning ≤0.2 • Positive >0.2

POSITIVE

Today's reading sits at the 31.6th percentile of 604 months since 1976.

What followed the last times →

Current Value

0.31%

3-month Change

-0.05 pp

3-month % Change

-13.89%

Why this can crash the market

Banks borrow short and lend long. When short rates sit above long rates, that business loses money and lending slows. Credit is what the US economy runs on: companies that cannot roll over debt cut investment first, then jobs, then earnings. Falling earnings reprice every stock. This signal came before every US recession since 1950, but it never says when.

Historical Data

The last three years • Source: FRED T10Y2Y, daily

Yield Curve Spread

0.31Oct 23, 2026

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Shiller PE Ratio

Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE). Measures stock market valuation relative to 10-year average earnings. High values indicate overvaluation.

Thresholds: Negative >35 • Warning ≥25 • Positive <25

NEGATIVE

Today's reading sits at the 98.7th percentile of 1868 months since 1871.

What followed the last times →

Current Value

3-month Change

-0.64

3-month % Change

-1.56%

Why this can crash the market

The CAPE ratio shows how many years of earnings you pay for up front. At extreme readings, the price already assumes a decade of perfect growth. The multiple breaks first: when growth disappoints, investors stop paying for those future years and prices fall even while companies stay profitable. The S&P 500 sits inside most retirement accounts.

Historical Data

The last three years • Source: multpl.com Shiller PE by month

Shiller PE Ratio

40▼ 0 (1.10%) vs prevOct 23, 2026

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Daily Stock Screeners

The same market, one company at a time: which S&P 500 stocks sit at their highs or lows, are oversold, trade under 15 times earnings or below book value today.

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Below 200-Week MA

144 / 495

Constituents whose latest weekly close sits under the simple average of the last 200 weekly closes.

FMC LULU ENPH CHTR …

Down 50% From 5-Year High

62 / 495

Constituents trading at half or less of their highest weekly close of the last five years.

FMC ENPH CHTR ARE …

Near 52-Week Low

19 / 495

Constituents whose latest weekly close sits within 5% of their lowest weekly low of the past year.

TMUS WYNN APP CMG …

10-Year High Dividend Yield

0 / 495

Dividend payers whose current yield is the highest reading of their own ten-year history.

Below Book Value

14 / 495

Constituents whose share price sits under the accounting value of their net assets.

FMC ARE MOS LKQ …

Near 52-Week High

33 / 495

Constituents whose latest close sits within 2% of their highest weekly high of the past year.

TECH CVX PAYC HAS …

Oversold: RSI Under 30

6 / 495

Constituents whose 14-week relative strength index has fallen under 30 after a run of weekly losses.

MGM FMC WYNN LKQ …

P/E Under 15

87 / 495

Profitable constituents priced at less than 15 times their trailing twelve-month earnings.

CHTR ALL BBWI AES …

Learn More About Each Indicator

Buffett Indicator

Deep dive into market cap to GDP ratio with live chart

Yield Curve

Understanding the 10Y-2Y spread and recession predictions

Shiller PE Ratio

CAPE ratio explained with historical analysis

Recession Probability

Combined recession risk assessment for 2026

Historical Analogs

When did the market last look like this — and what followed

Methodology

Every formula, source series and threshold behind these numbers