Crash risk monitor

Market Crash Indicators

As of Sep 10, 2026, the composite crash-risk score is 67.0% — 2 of 3 crash indicators (Buffett Indicator, 10Y–2Y yield curve, Shiller PE ratio) are reading negative against their fixed thresholds. Each indicator below shows its live value, signal and full historical chart.

HIGH RISK

Crash Risk Score

67.0%

Share of crash indicators reading negative

Indicators Negative

2/3

Valuation and stress gauges flashing

Data As Of

Sep 10, 2026

Refreshed hourly from public sources

Crash Signal Board

2 NEGATIVE0 WARNING1 POSITIVE

Buffett IndicatorNEGATIVE

232%+6.65 (+2.95%)

Market capitalization to GDP ratio. Warren Buffett's preferred valuation metric for the overall stock market.

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Yield CurvePOSITIVE

0.40%0 (0%)

US Treasury yield curve spread (10Y-2Y). Negative values indicate inversion, often predicting recession.

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Shiller PE RatioNEGATIVE

41+0.82 (+2.04%)

Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE). Measures stock market valuation relative to 10-year average earnings. High values indicate overvaluation.

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Buffett Indicator

Market capitalization to GDP ratio. Warren Buffett's preferred valuation metric for the overall stock market.

Thresholds: Negative >150 • Warning ≥120 • Positive <120

NEGATIVE

Today's reading sits at the 99.6th percentile of 381 months since 1995.

Current Value

232%

3-month Change

+6.65

3-month % Change

+2.95%

Why this can crash the market

A stock market cannot grow faster than its economy forever. When the whole market is priced far above the country's yearly output, future returns can only come from earnings catching up or from prices falling. At this level there is little cushion left: one bad quarter for earnings or rates, and the same index funds that bought on the way up sell on the way down.

Historical Data

The last three years • Source: Yahoo Finance ^DWCF (Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market) / FRED GDP, quarterly

Buffett Indicator

232▼ 1 (0.55%) vs prevSep 9, 2026

Yield Curve

US Treasury yield curve spread (10Y-2Y). Negative values indicate inversion, often predicting recession.

Thresholds: Negative ≤-0.3 • Warning ≤0.2 • Positive >0.2

POSITIVE

Today's reading sits at the 36.9th percentile of 603 months since 1976.

Current Value

0.40%

3-month Change

3-month % Change

Why this can crash the market

Banks borrow short and lend long. When short rates sit above long rates, that business loses money and lending slows. Credit is what the US economy runs on: companies that cannot roll over debt cut investment first, then jobs, then earnings. Falling earnings reprice every stock. This signal came before every US recession since 1950, but it never says when.

Historical Data

The last three years • Source: FRED T10Y2Y, daily

Yield Curve Spread

0.40▼ 0.01 (2.44%) vs prevSep 9, 2026

Shiller PE Ratio

Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE). Measures stock market valuation relative to 10-year average earnings. High values indicate overvaluation.

Thresholds: Negative >35 • Warning ≥25 • Positive <25

NEGATIVE

Today's reading sits at the 99th percentile of 1867 months since 1871.

Current Value

3-month Change

+0.82

3-month % Change

+2.04%

Why this can crash the market

The CAPE ratio shows how many years of earnings you pay for up front. At extreme readings, the price already assumes a decade of perfect growth. The multiple breaks first: when growth disappoints, investors stop paying for those future years and prices fall even while companies stay profitable. The S&P 500 sits inside most retirement accounts.

Historical Data

The last three years • Source: multpl.com Shiller PE by month

Shiller PE Ratio

41▲ 0 (0.20%) vs prevSep 9, 2026

Learn More About Each Indicator

Buffett Indicator

Deep dive into market cap to GDP ratio with live chart

Yield Curve

Understanding the 10Y-2Y spread and recession predictions

Shiller PE Ratio

CAPE ratio explained with historical analysis

Recession Probability

Combined recession risk assessment for 2026

Historical Analogs

When did the market last look like this — and what followed

Methodology

Every formula, source series and threshold behind these numbers