The world's reserve currency sets the tone for global markets. When the dollar surges, emerging markets tremble and commodities fall. When it weakens, a different playbook wins. Know which regime you're in.
Measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. For growth analysis, lower DXY change indicates better conditions for market growth.
Thresholds (3-month % change): Negative >1% • Warning ≥-1% • Positive <-1%
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The DXY measures the US dollar's value against a basket of 6 major trading-partner currencies. Established in 1973, it serves as the primary benchmark for dollar strength globally.
Currency Weights:
Key Levels:
Strong Dollar (Rising DXY)
Weak Dollar (Falling DXY)
Interest rate differentials between the Fed and other central banks are the primary driver. When the Fed raises rates faster than the ECB or BOJ, capital flows into dollar assets for higher yields. Geopolitical uncertainty also drives safe-haven flows into the dollar, while persistent trade deficits weigh on it long-term.
Money Supply (M2)
M2 money supply growth — liquidity driving asset prices
Real Interest Rates
Inflation-adjusted rates affecting dollar strength
Recession Probability
Combined recession forecast for 2026
Yield Curve
10Y-2Y spread — the #1 recession predictor
Market Growth Indicators
All 3 growth signals on one dashboard
Market Analysis
Recession prediction models and historical analysis
US Dollar Index data provided for educational purposes only. Not investment advice.