MARKETCRASH.NET
Growth probability monitor

Market Growth Indicators

As of Oct 25, 2026, the composite growth-probability score is 67.0% — 2 of 3 growth indicators (US Dollar Index, M2 money supply, real interest rates) are reading favorable against their fixed thresholds. Each indicator below shows its live value, signal and full historical chart.

HIGH GROWTH
Growth Probability Score
67.0%
Share of growth indicators reading favorable
Indicators Favorable
2/3
Monetary and liquidity gauges supporting expansion
Data As Of
Oct 25, 2026
Refreshed hourly from public sources

Growth Signal Board

0 NEGATIVE1 WARNING2 POSITIVE
US Dollar Index (DXY)WARNING
101.81+0.34 (+0.34%)

Measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. For growth analysis, lower DXY change indicates better conditions for market growth.

View chart ↓
US Money Supply (M2)POSITIVE
$23.3T+$329.1B (+1.43%)

Total money supply in circulation including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Rapid growth can indicate inflationary pressure.

View chart ↓
Real Interest RatesPOSITIVE
2.64%+0.21 pp (+0.21%)

10-Year Treasury yield minus inflation rate. Negative values indicate favorable conditions for market growth.

View chart ↓

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. For growth analysis, lower DXY change indicates better conditions for market growth.

Thresholds (3-month % change): Negative >1% • Warning ≥-1% • Positive <-1%

WARNING

Today's 3-month change sits at the 70.2th percentile of 667 months since 1971.

What followed the last times →
Current Value
101.81
3-month Change
+0.34
3-month % Change
+0.34%

Why this moves the market

A fast-rising dollar tightens conditions everywhere at once. Much of the world borrows in dollars, so a stronger dollar raises the cost of every foreign loan. At home, a large share of S&P 500 revenue is earned abroad and converts back into fewer dollars, so earnings get marked down even when business is fine.

Historical Data

The last three years • Source: Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB, daily

DXY Index
101.81▲ 0.20 (0.20%) vs prevOct 23, 2026
Draw your own chart on TradingViewAffiliate link

US Money Supply (M2)

Total money supply in circulation including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Rapid growth can indicate inflationary pressure.

Thresholds (3-month % change): Negative >15% • Warning ≥10% • Positive <10%

POSITIVE

Today's 3-month change sits at the 41.5th percentile of 809 months since 1959.

What followed the last times →
Current Value
$23.3T
3-month Change
+$329.1B
3-month % Change
+1.43%

Why this moves the market

Asset prices depend on how much money chases a fixed set of things to own. When the Fed expands M2, the new money goes into stocks, housing and anything with a return. When M2 shrinks, that demand is withdrawn from everything at once. The 2022-2023 contraction, the first since the 1930s, ran alongside a bear market in stocks and bonds together.

Historical Data

The last three years • Source: FRED M2SL, monthly

M2 Money Supply
23,342.80▲ 124.90 (0.54%) vs prevAug 1, 2026
Draw your own chart on TradingViewAffiliate link

Real Interest Rates

10-Year Treasury yield minus inflation rate. Negative values indicate favorable conditions for market growth.

Thresholds: Negative ≤-1 • Warning ≤1 • Positive >1

POSITIVE

Today's reading sits at the 98.6th percentile of 285 months since 2003.

What followed the last times →
Current Value
2.64%
3-month Change
+0.21 pp
3-month % Change
+0.21%

Why this moves the market

The real rate is the true price of money, and it sets what every other asset is worth. When real rates are deeply negative, cash loses value, so money moves into stocks and property. When real rates turn high and positive, the process reverses: safe bonds pay a real return, capital leaves stocks, and companies that survived on cheap borrowing break first.

Historical Data

The last three years • Source: FRED DFII10 (10-Year TIPS constant maturity), daily

Real Interest Rates
2.64▼ 0.12 (4.35%) vs prevOct 22, 2026
Draw your own chart on TradingViewAffiliate link

Learn More About Each Indicator

US Dollar Index

DXY strength against major currencies with live chart

Money Supply (M2)

M2 growth and what it means for market liquidity

Real Interest Rates

10-year TIPS yield — the rate you actually keep

Market Crash Indicators

The other side: the three crash signals

Methodology

Every formula, source series and threshold behind these numbers