MARKETCRASH.NET
Growth probability monitor

Market Growth Indicators

As of Jul 27, 2026, the composite growth-probability score is 67.0% — 2 of 3 growth indicators (US Dollar Index, M2 money supply, real interest rates) are reading favorable against their fixed thresholds. Each indicator below shows its live value, signal and full historical chart.

HIGH GROWTH
Growth Probability Score
67.0%
Share of growth indicators reading favorable
Indicators Favorable
2/3
Monetary and liquidity gauges supporting expansion
Data As Of
Jul 27, 2026
Refreshed hourly from public sources

Growth Signal Board

1 NEGATIVE0 WARNING2 POSITIVE
US Dollar Index (DXY)NEGATIVE
101.43+2.92 (+2.96%)

Measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. For growth analysis, lower DXY change indicates better conditions for market growth.

View chart ↓
US Money Supply (M2)POSITIVE
$23.1T+425.4 (+1.88%)

Total money supply in circulation including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Rapid growth can indicate inflationary pressure.

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Real Interest RatesPOSITIVE
2.43%+0.54 (+0.54%)

10-Year Treasury yield minus inflation rate. Negative values indicate favorable conditions for market growth.

View chart ↓

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. For growth analysis, lower DXY change indicates better conditions for market growth.

Thresholds (3-month % change): Negative >1% • Warning ≥-1% • Positive <-1%

NEGATIVE

Today's 3-month change sits at the 80.3th percentile of 664 months since 1971.

Current Value
101.43
3-month Change
+2.92
3-month % Change
+2.96%

Historical Data

3 years • Current: 101.43 • 3-month change: +2.92 (+2.96%) • Source: Yahoo Finance DX-Y.NYB, daily

US Money Supply (M2)

Total money supply in circulation including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Rapid growth can indicate inflationary pressure.

Thresholds (3-month % change): Negative >15% • Warning ≥10% • Positive <10%

POSITIVE

Today's 3-month change sits at the 65.1th percentile of 806 months since 1959.

Current Value
$23.1T
3-month Change
+425.4
3-month % Change
+1.88%

Historical Data

2.8 years • Current: 23052.3 • 3-month change: +425.4 (+1.88%) • Source: FRED M2SL, monthly

Real Interest Rates

10-Year Treasury yield minus inflation rate. Negative values indicate favorable conditions for market growth.

Thresholds: Negative ≤-1 • Warning ≤1 • Positive >1

POSITIVE

Today's reading sits at the 89.9th percentile of 282 months since 2003.

Current Value
2.43%
3-month Change
+0.54
3-month % Change
+0.54%

Historical Data

3 years • Current: 2.43 • 3-month change: +0.54 (+0.54%) • Source: FRED DFII10 (10-Year TIPS constant maturity), daily

Learn More About Each Indicator

US Dollar Index

DXY strength against major currencies with live chart

Money Supply (M2)

M2 growth and what it means for market liquidity

Real Interest Rates

10-year TIPS yield — the rate you actually keep

Market Crash Indicators

The other side: the three crash signals

Methodology

Every formula, source series and threshold behind these numbers