Stop guessing. Our real-time model combines 6 proven economic indicators to calculate current recession risk. 85% historical accuracy. The smart money watches these signals — and now you can too.
Crash Risk
Growth Probability
Overall Assessment
These 3 indicators have historically preceded major market crashes and recessions.
These 3 indicators track monetary conditions and economic momentum that support market growth.
Our model evaluates 6 economic indicators across two dimensions — crash risk and growth probability — to produce an overall recession risk assessment.
Growth Positive
Growth Probability > 50% and Crash Risk <= 50%. Monetary conditions and valuations support continued expansion.
Neutral / Mixed
Mixed signals across indicators. Both crash risk and growth probability near 50%, or conflicting readings between categories.
Crash Risky
Crash Risk > 50% and Growth Probability <= 50%. Multiple indicators signaling overvaluation or economic weakness.
Each indicator is compared against historically significant thresholds. The combined crash risk percentage reflects how many indicators are in negative territory, while growth probability shows how many favor expansion.
Yield Curve (98% accuracy)
— Inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1950Buffett Indicator
— Market cap to GDP above 100% signals overvaluation historically linked to correctionsShiller PE Ratio
— CAPE above 30 has preceded every major market decline in the last centuryUS Dollar Index
— Extreme dollar strength creates global financial stressM2 Money Supply
— Contracting money supply signals deflationary pressure and tightening liquidityReal Interest Rates
— Sharply positive real rates increase borrowing costs and slow economic activityBuffett Indicator
Market cap to GDP — Warren Buffett's valuation metric
Yield Curve
10Y-2Y spread — #1 recession predictor since 1950
Shiller PE Ratio
CAPE ratio — 10-year smoothed valuation
US Dollar Index
DXY dollar strength against major currencies
Money Supply (M2)
M2 money supply growth rate
Real Interest Rates
Inflation-adjusted interest rates
Recession probability data is provided for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.