The share of the labour force without work — the last indicator to turn in a recession, monthly from the BLS.
The latest value with its change over the trailing 90 days.
Source: FRED UNRATE — civilian unemployment rate, monthly, seasonally adjusted
The last 10 years • Source: FRED UNRATE — civilian unemployment rate, monthly, seasonally adjusted
The chart shows the US civilian unemployment rate, monthly and seasonally adjusted, over ten years, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through FRED. The page shows the current rate with its 90-day change.
Unemployment turns last. Markets fall first, then earnings, then hiring. The line can look calm well into a slowdown, so a steady rise deserves attention. Layoffs feed on themselves: lost income cuts spending, which costs more jobs. The rate can also fall for a bad reason, when people stop looking for work. The Sahm rule page turns this series into an earlier signal.
This series turned into an early-warning rule — unemployment against its own 12-month low
Recession likelihood estimated from yield-curve and macro indicators
How households say they feel — often moves before the hard labour data does
Market data sourced as noted above. For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.