US Unemployment Rate

This chart plots the civilian unemployment rate — the share of the labour force that is without work and looking for it — monthly and seasonally adjusted over the last ten years, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics via the FRED series named under the chart. The page refreshes hourly from the live data and shows the current rate with the trailing 90-day change.

Unemployment is the last indicator to turn. Markets fall first, then earnings, then hiring — the labour market absorbs a slowdown through hours and vacancies long before it shows up as joblessness. That is why this line can look calm deep into a deteriorating cycle, and why a sustained rise once it starts deserves to be taken seriously: by the time unemployment moves, the cause is usually well established.

For US markets a low, stable rate is the backdrop to every expansion — employment is income, and income is spending. A rising rate is the one signal that turns a market scare into an economic one, because layoffs feed on themselves: lost income cuts spending, which costs the next round of jobs. A falling rate late in an expansion reads differently — a labour market running out of workers, which pressures wages and through them inflation and rates.

The caveats: the rate comes from a monthly household survey, is revised, and can fall for the wrong reason — people leaving the labour force shrink both the numerator and the denominator. It lags the cycle by construction, so it confirms rather than predicts. For a version engineered to catch turns early, see the Sahm Rule page.