US Inflation Rate

This chart plots the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index — the pace of consumer-price inflation, computed monthly from the BLS series named under the chart. A year of history is consumed producing the first year-over-year point, so the window is shorter than the underlying index. The page refreshes hourly from the live data and shows the current rate with the trailing 90-day change.

This is the number the Federal Reserve targets — its stated objective is 2 percent over time — and the number every interest-rate decision is anchored to. A rising rate means price growth is accelerating: pressure on the Fed to hold rates high or hike, pressure on household purchasing power, and pressure on equity valuations, which are priced off those same rates. A falling rate is disinflation, which buys the Fed room to ease.

For US stocks the level and the direction both matter. A moderate, stable rate is the background every bull market of the last generation was built on. A rate climbing away from target forces the rate repricing that has ended more than one of them; a rate falling back toward target without a recession — the soft landing — is the single friendliest configuration this chart can show.

The caveats: a year-over-year rate has a base built in — a spike from twelve months ago falling out of the window moves the rate even if nothing changed this month, so always ask what the comparison is against. The series is monthly, published with roughly a two-week lag, and seasonally adjusted. The level of prices, which never comes back down, lives on the CPI page.