Week of Oct 12, 2026: Hormuz Tanker Traffic Down 98.3% While Shiller PE Hits 41.9

The alarm: the world's biggest oil gate is almost shut

Before the disruption, about 50 tankers a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz. In the latest reading (Oct 4) it was 0.86 a day. That is 98.3% below normal, down from 1.29 a day a week earlier. This strait carried about a fifth of the world's oil until its first closure in March 2026. There is no pipeline big enough to replace it.

The other gate is not helping. The Bab el-Mandeb, the route to the Suez Canal, runs at 9 tankers a day against 20.1 before, 55.3% below normal. The Oil Shock page reads CRITICAL.

The price has already noticed. Brent crude is $125.44 (Oct 6), up from $113.96 a week earlier and +64% in three months. On Oct 2 it touched $135.51. The 1973 embargo, the 1979 Iranian supply cut and 2022 all ran the same chain: oil first, then inflation, then interest rates, then stocks.

An expensive market meeting a supply shock

Shiller PE: 41.9, up from 40.9 in September. That is the 99.1th percentile of every month since 1871. The only time it was higher was December 1999, when it peaked at 44.2, just before the dot-com crash took 78% off the NASDAQ. We are 2.3 points away.

Buffett Indicator: 236.2%, up from 233.8% on Oct 2. Before the 2000 crash it was 146%. Today it sits at the 99.9th percentile of all months since 1995.

10-Year Treasury yield: 5.22% (Oct 8), against 5.24% a week earlier but up 0.66 points in 90 days. Stocks priced at 42 times earnings now compete with a government bond paying over 5%. And interest on the US debt already eats 16.50% of all federal spending, climbing toward the 23.48% record of 1991.

US Dollar Index: 102.21, up from 101.93 on Oct 2, which keeps the growth side under pressure.

Nobody looks scared

Here is the strangest part. The VIX, the market's fear gauge, is 15.41 (Oct 8), down from 16.39 a week earlier. The Fear and Greed Index reads 52.5, Neutral, and its volatility part scores "Extreme Greed". Meanwhile the junk-bond part scores "Extreme Fear". The bond market is nervous. The stock market is calm.

The crash-risk score holds at 67.0%: two of three crash indicators are negative. The yield curve at 0.44% (0.45% a week ago) is the one still reading positive.

A crash needs two things: a market expensive enough to fall, and a trigger. This week the market has both on the board at the same time.

This post describes data only. It is not investment advice.

Don't find out from the headlines. Get the week's biggest moves by email, at most once a week and only when something moved: subscribe on the MarketCrash dashboard.