MarketCrash Weekly Recap: Valuations Stay at Record Levels, Both Scores at 67% (Week to Oct 5, 2026)
The week in one paragraph
Not much changed in the daily data this week. The bigger story is the longer trend. The two valuation gauges kept rising over the past three months and are still near the top of their historical ranges. The yield curve, the dollar and real rates each moved only a little in their latest readings. The crash-risk score and the growth score both read 67.0%, and the dashboard labels the overall regime Neutral Market.
A note on the figures: most series below update daily, monthly or quarterly. Where an indicator page reports a 3-month change, we say so. We don't relabel it as a weekly change.
Biggest moves
Shiller PE Ratio: 41. It rose 1.36 points (+3.4%) over three months, the largest percentage change among the six indicators. The reading is at the 99.1th percentile of data going back to 1871. Status: negative. As of Oct 2, 2026 (monthly data).
Buffett Indicator: 234%. Total stock market value to GDP rose 5.58 percentage points (+2.45%) over three months. It is at the 99.9th percentile of 382 months since 1995. Status: negative. As of Oct 2, 2026.
M2 Money Supply: $23.3 trillion. The latest month added $124.90 billion (+0.54%), and the 3-month gain is $329.1 billion (+1.43%). That 3-month pace is at the 41.5th percentile since 1959, which is a normal range. Status: positive. The latest reading is dated Aug 1, 2026, because M2 is published with a lag.
US Dollar Index (DXY): 101.93. The latest daily change was −0.17 (−0.17%). Over three months the index is up 1.06%, which puts it at the 75.5th percentile. Because of that 3-month rise, its status is negative. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Quieter readings
Yield Curve (10Y–2Y): 0.45%. The spread dipped 0.01 percentage points in the latest reading and is 0.10 points higher over three months. It is at the 31.6th percentile of 604 months since 1976 and still well above the 0% inversion line. Status: positive. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Real Interest Rates: 2.88%. The 10-year TIPS yield eased 0.05 percentage points from 2.93%. It is at the 98.6th percentile of 285 months since 2003, which is restrictive by historical standards, but the site's model scores it positive. As of Oct 1, 2026.
Crash-risk score: 67.0%
The crash-risk score shows how many of its three inputs read negative. This week it is two of three:
- Buffett Indicator: negative
- Shiller PE Ratio: negative
- Yield Curve: positive
The score reflects stretched valuations, while the yield curve, the main stress gauge in this set, is not flashing.
Growth score: 67.0%
The growth-probability score shows how many of its three inputs read favorable. This week it is two of three:
- M2 Money Supply: positive
- Real Interest Rates: positive
- US Dollar Index: negative
The score page does not publish a week-over-week comparison, so we don't report a change for either score.
Data notes
The data changelog has no new entries this week. The latest corrections are dated Jul 25, 2026. They covered the real-interest-rate series and Buffett Indicator values on non-trading days, and they changed failed data sources to report errors instead of showing sample data. The methodology page explains how each status is assigned.
This recap describes data only. It is not investment advice.
See all six indicators and both scores live on the MarketCrash dashboard.