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MarketCrash vs Longtermtrends: One Crash-Risk Verdict or a Wall of Charts?

You opened ten charts. You still don't know whether to worry.

You know the feeling. A headline says the market is "in bubble territory." You go to check. One tab shows the Buffett Indicator, another shows the yield curve, and a third shows CAPE. Twenty minutes later you have a lot of lines on a screen and no answer to the one question you came with: how risky is this market right now?

Most people who track crash signals end up building that answer in their head, chart by chart. Longtermtrends is one of the best-known places to do it. It's a large, well-made chart library, and it's a good one. But a library is not a verdict. If you want the verdict, there's a faster route.

What Longtermtrends does well

It's only fair to say what Longtermtrends does well. It calls itself "The Antidote to Financial Hype" and has charts across stocks, bonds, gold, the economy, real estate, commodities and crypto. Its Buffett Indicator page plots the Wilshire 5000 against GDP, marks the dot-com and housing bubbles for context, and adds related ratios such as S&P 500 to GDP and Dow to GDP. The data comes from Yahoo Finance, the St. Louis Fed and the Congressional Budget Office. You can switch between log and linear scales, zoom in, and embed the charts.

It also has a paid membership with data downloads, a Weekly Macro Report and member tools such as The Macro Compass and a FIRE retirement calculator.

If you like to explore and want to compare gold against real yields one afternoon and Bitcoin the next, Longtermtrends is built for you.

What MarketCrash gives you instead

MarketCrash starts from the opposite end. It doesn't hand you every chart. It answers the crash question first.

  • Six indicators, scored together. Three crash-risk signals (the Buffett Indicator, the 10Y–2Y yield curve and the Shiller PE / CAPE) and three growth signals (the US Dollar Index, M2 money supply and real interest rates, based on the 10-year TIPS yield).
  • A clear regime label. The dashboard puts the market into Growth Positive, Neutral Market or Crash Risky, so you don't have to work it out yourself.
  • Updated every hour. The scores refresh hourly from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and live market prices. News refreshes every 15 minutes.
  • Color-coded status. Each indicator shows Normal, Warning or Critical at a glance.
  • Five outside risk monitors. It tracks oil disruptions, AI debt, private credit, Treasury holdings and federal interest costs: the stories that move markets between data releases.
  • Historical market analogs. You can see which past markets today's readings look most like.
  • Stock screeners. Screens for 200-week moving average, 52-week lows, dividend yield and book value, for when you want to act and not just watch.
  • Free. No paywall on the dashboard.

Head to head

  • Main question it answers. Longtermtrends: "What does this long-term trend look like?" MarketCrash: "How risky is the market right now?"
  • Crash verdict. Longtermtrends: you read the charts yourself. MarketCrash: a combined crash-risk score plus a regime label.
  • Buffett Indicator. Both have it. MarketCrash scores it alongside the yield curve and CAPE.
  • Growth side. MarketCrash scores the dollar, M2 and real rates against the crash signals. Longtermtrends has charts in those areas but no combined score.
  • How fresh the data is. MarketCrash scores update hourly. On Longtermtrends' Buffett page, Wilshire data updates regularly, while some equity data is published quarterly with a lag.
  • Breadth. Longtermtrends covers more asset classes, including crypto, real estate and commodities. MarketCrash stays focused on crash risk.
  • Cost. MarketCrash is free. Longtermtrends has free charts and a paid membership for downloads, reports and tools.
  • Email. MarketCrash sends at most one email a week, and only in weeks when something actually moved.

Who should pick which

Pick Longtermtrends if charts are your hobby and you want the widest range of long-term data to explore.

Pick MarketCrash if you have a portfolio to protect and limited time. You want to open one page, see one score, read one label, and get back to your day, knowing you'll get an email if the picture really changes.

The cost of not checking

The Buffett Indicator, the yield curve and CAPE are popular for a reason. Warren Buffett called market cap to GDP "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment". But a signal only helps if you see it in time. A warning you only notice in hindsight is just history.

MarketCrash watches these signals every hour, so you don't have to remember to check.

See today's crash-risk score

It's free, it takes seconds, and the score you see is at most an hour old.

👉 Check the live crash-risk dashboard on MarketCrash.net. If you want the weekly heads-up, add your email: one email at most, and only when something moved.

MarketCrash is for information and education only. It is not trading or investment advice.