Weekly Market Recap: Week to September 28, 2026
The week in brief
Most of this week's moves were small. Real interest rates had the largest change. The two valuation measures edged higher and the US dollar eased a little. Both headline scores are at 67%, and the dashboard calls the overall regime a neutral market.
A note on the numbers: the change figures on the dashboard are three-month changes. The weekly figures below come from each indicator's own page, and each one is dated to its latest reading.
Biggest moves of the week
Real Interest Rates: 2.85%, up from 2.76%. This was the biggest move in percentage terms. The rate rose 0.09 percentage points (+3.26%) in the reading dated September 24. It is at the 98.4th percentile of readings since 2003, so it is high by the standard of the last two decades. The site gives it a POSITIVE status against its fixed threshold.
Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE): 41, up 1.42% on the week. In the reading dated September 25, CAPE is at the 99.1st percentile of 1,867 months since 1871. The site's warning level is 25 and its extreme level is 35, so its status is NEGATIVE. The highest reading on record, 44.2 in December 1999, is still above today's level.
Buffett Indicator: 235%, up 0.46% on the week. This ratio compares total stock market value to GDP. The September 25 reading is at the 99.9th percentile of 381 months since 1995, and its status is NEGATIVE. Over three months it is up 9.79 percentage points (+4.35%).
US Dollar Index (DXY): 100.97, down 0.32 (−0.32%). The dollar eased slightly and is at the 48.6th percentile of 666 months since 1971, which is near the middle of its history. Its status is WARNING. Over three months it is down 0.39 (−0.38%).
Steady readings
Yield Curve (10Y–2Y): 0.36%. The spread is still positive, which means the curve is not inverted. It is at the 31.4th percentile of 604 months since 1976. Its page shows a three-month change of +0.05 percentage points but no weekly figure. Status: POSITIVE.
M2 Money Supply: $23.3T. M2 is reported monthly, and the latest reading is dated August 1, 2026, so this series had no new data this week. That reading was up 0.54% from the month before, and M2 is up $329.1B (+1.43%) over three months. The site's warning level for growth is 10%, and the status is POSITIVE.
Crash-risk and growth scores
Crash Risk Score: 67.0% as of September 28. Two of its three indicators are negative against fixed thresholds: the Buffett Indicator and the Shiller PE Ratio. The Yield Curve is the one positive reading.
Growth Probability: 67.0% as of September 28. Two of its three indicators are favorable: M2 Money Supply and Real Interest Rates. The US Dollar Index is on WARNING. The growth page does not show an earlier score to compare against.
With both scores at the same level, the dashboard labels the regime neutral. The scores count how many indicators cross fixed thresholds. They are not forecasts.
Data notes
The data changelog had no new entries this week. The latest entries are from July 25, 2026. That round of changes:
- switched Real Interest Rates to the Federal Reserve's 10-year TIPS yield (DFII10)
- fixed how non-trading days were recorded in the Buffett Indicator
- made failed data sources show as errors instead of being filled with sample data
The changelog is the place to check how any of these series is sourced.
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