MarketCrash vs Current Market Valuation: Live Crash Signals Without the Quarterly Wait

2026-09-28

The frustrating part: an answer that's months old

You want to know whether the market is running hot. So you open a valuation site, find the Buffett Indicator, and see this line: "Updated on June 30, 2026."

That's the free experience on Current Market Valuation (CMV). Its homepage says it plainly: "Models updated quarterly. Become a member for weekly model updates." (source). Weekly updates come with the Standard membership at $99/yr. Excel downloads come with the Data Download tier at $199/yr (source). CMV's combined score, the "Aggregate Market Valuation Model," is for members only (source).

Markets can turn in a week. A free reading that is a full quarter old tells you very little about today.

The after-state: open one page and see today's risk

MarketCrash takes a different approach. You open the dashboard and get a live crash risk score built from three crash indicators: the Buffett Indicator, the 10Y–2Y yield curve and the Shiller PE (CAPE). Three growth indicators sit beside them: the US Dollar Index, M2 money supply and real interest rates.

Hourly, not quarterly. Each computed answer is held for one hour, and the source calls beneath it refresh every fifteen minutes. The site rebuilds on an hourly schedule and stores daily snapshots.
Free, with no account. You don't need to sign up to see the dashboard, and no score sits behind a paywall.
Nothing hidden in the method. Each indicator reads as positive, warning or negative against cutoffs fixed in advance. Crash risk is the share of the three crash indicators that read negative. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Data from primary sources. The numbers come from the Federal Reserve (FRED), Yahoo Finance, multpl.com and ICE BofA.

Risks beyond valuation

Valuation ratios move slowly. Shocks don't. MarketCrash also tracks five outside risks that a valuation model alone won't show you:

Oil Shock: tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb
AI Debt: capex and borrowing by the big AI builders
Private Credit: BDC discounts to NAV
Treasury Dump: Japan's holdings of US Treasuries
Debt Spiral: federal interest costs as a share of spending

You also get stock screeners (below the 200-week moving average, dividend yield, book value and more), historical analogs that compare today with past markets, and more than eight charts.

Head to head

Freshness of free data: MarketCrash updates hourly. CMV's free models update quarterly (source).
Weekly updates: MarketCrash's live data costs nothing. At CMV, weekly updates need the $99/yr membership (source).
Combined score: MarketCrash shows its crash risk score free on the home page. CMV's aggregate model is for members only (source).
Email: MarketCrash sends at most one email a week, and only in weeks when something moved. It names the week's biggest moves in plain words, needs no account and takes one click to unsubscribe. CMV offers "Monthly model updates, right to your inbox" (source).
Model breadth: CMV runs more models: 6 valuation, 4 recession and 5 sentiment models, including the Sahm Rule and the VIX (source). MarketCrash focuses on 6 core indicators plus 5 outside risk monitors.
Raw data files: CMV sells Excel downloads at $199/yr (source). MarketCrash publishes its formulas and thresholds.
Learning by doing: Only MarketCrash has the market game. More on that below.

Who each one fits

If you're a researcher who wants fifteen models and spreadsheets to work in, CMV's paid tiers are built for you. If you want to know today whether the crash signals are flashing, without a subscription, a login or a three-month lag, MarketCrash is built for you.

Test your nerve on real history

This week MarketCrash launched Survive the Crash. It is a 20-year run on real month-end market history since 1971. You see the site's gauges as they read at the time, you deal with life events along the way, and the end shows which years you actually lived through. The Daily Call gives every player the same five hidden months each day, so you can compare your calls with friends. On a phone, sharing a result opens your chat app.

It's the fastest way to learn whether you would have held on or sold at the worst moment. Most people only find that out when real money is on the line.

We ship every week

MarketCrash is actively built. In the past week alone, the dashboard learned to serve the last good value when a source like FRED goes slow, so you never land on "No data." The weekly digest was rebuilt to be short and readable, and the emails were redesigned to hold up in phone dark mode.

See today's reading now

The next quarterly update is weeks away, and the market won't wait for it. Open the dashboard, check the live crash risk score, and add your email so you hear about it in any week the signals move.

Check the live crash risk on MarketCrash →

MarketCrash is for education and information only. It is not investment advice.