Is the Buffett Indicator at a Record High?
No, but it is close. The Buffett Indicator stands at 232%, below its record of 234% set in August 2026. That reading sits in the 99.6th percentile of 381 months since 1995.
The evidence
At 232%, the ratio of total US market capitalization to GDP is above the 150% line this site classifies as extreme. Today's reading sits at the 99.6th percentile of 381 months since 1995. The full chart and source data live on the Buffett Indicator page.
The caveat
Why this answer is not a forecast, and never will be.
A record reading is information, not a verdict. US-listed companies earn a large share of their revenue overseas, so market capitalization can outgrow domestic GDP without anyone being irrational, and the interest-rate regime changes what counts as a fair ratio. The series itself only begins in 1995 — “record” means record in that window.
Valuation answers “where”, never “when”. The Buffett Indicator sat in extreme territory for years before the dot-com peak, and expensive markets have repeatedly become more expensive before anything broke.
The strongest argument against treating any of this as a forecast is on the market analogs page: the historical months that most closely match today’s conditions were followed by both strong and poor S&P 500 returns. Nearly identical setups have preceded opposite outcomes, and any page that tells you otherwise is selling certainty it does not have.
Related reading
More questions, answered live
Every monthly reading above 40 in the full CAPE history, and what followed.
The date the spread crossed back above zero, and the record of past un-inversions.
Both long-run valuation yardsticks ranked against their entire recorded history.
The last month real rates stood at or above today’s reading, from the full series.
Computed from public data for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.